Mike Leach needs horses to run the Air Raid Race in the SEC and that will take time
By Jake Wimberly
Time - something that never stands still, and sometimes we don’t have enough of , and sometimes we don’t want to wait on the time it takes for an occurrence to happen. Regardless, time is always a factor in everything we do.
The moment Mike Leach was announced as the new head football coach at Mississippi State, people started talking in “real time” about how his air raid might work in the “near future -time” or years from now “extended time”.
Mike Leach has always been a guy football fans liked or didn’t. You approve of the air raid or you don’t. Despite the fact many offenses ran today have “air raid concepts” - football fans are very vocal on how they feel about a team that launches the ball in the air 70 times a game.
Forever, many people felt Leach’s system was fun to watch, but could never work in the rugged Southeastern Conference, due to the athleticism and playmakers on each team. Once Leach was hired at Mississippi State, it was game on - just how quickly would this offense pass, or fail the SEC test?
Mike Leach brought in a transfer quarterback from Stanford, a few transfer offensive linemen, a transfer or two at wide receiver and it was go time. Mississippi State went down to LSU and defeated the defending National Champions and the Bulldogs transfer quarterback KJ Costello threw for 623 yards and five touchdowns. Running back Kylin Hill could catch, wide receiver Osirus Mitchell was reborn with 7 catches for 183 yards and even journeyman Austin Williams finally arrived.
The Air Raid worked; then the next two weeks happened. The Bulldogs were Arkansas’s first SEC victim in over two years and they were shut out at Kentucky, all the while throwing multiple pick sixes, interceptions and showing an inability to defeat a zone defense or block along the offensive line consistently.
So in a matter of three weeks, Mike Leach went from SEC Air Raid dominance to throw this trash away and run the damn ball son!
So which one is it - does the scheme work in the SEC or is it simply defeated with a zone defense, something Mike Leach has seen over and again for 20 plus years?
The answer is neither, because we need time - lots of time to see if this will truly work, and time is something many fans do not possess today.
Here is the cold hard facts for Mississippi State and the Air Raid as it pertains to right now, in present time. The Bulldogs do not have the horses to run this race today. You cannot throw a volkswagen in the Indy 500, proclaim it a speed demon and simply win the race.
Conversely, you cannot take random football team “A”, slap Air Raid on the building and instantly proclaim you are a throwing, scoring machine. And Mississippi State is far from ready to proclaim, they are Air Raid U.
Mississippi State needs time; time to recruit receivers and lineman that can block this scheme; time to develop quarterbacks and learn. The Bulldogs leading receiver right now is a running back and their next best receiver has only 14 catches. Mike Leach is seeing now, what I have said for two years and that is Dan Mullen and Joe Moorhead did this program no favors in recruiting skill talent. And look it’s not the talent’s fault - they didn’t recruit themselves, but Mike Leach is playing with marginal talent at best in a system that requires significant upgrading.
This isn’t the first time Leach has had to do this either. At both previous stops, Leach had to build from the floor up to get where he wanted to be.
Both stops were different - at Texas Tech, Leach had a decent base built from the previous coach as Spike Dykes left Leach with decent talent. At Washington State, Leach had a different start as Bill Doba and Paul Wulff had wrecked the program after a nice run by Mike Price - it was a true rebuild.
At Mississippi State, Leach has some pieces, but lacks serious talent in skill players and there seems to be a culture issue in the locker room, that dates back to the Joe Moorhead era; a sense of softness amongst some players.
Every team is different, every take over is different, and Mississippi State fans don’t want to hear this, but this could be the longest, hardest rebuild Leach has taken on.
Let’s start with Exhibit A -
Above you can see, starting with Texas Tech and looking at how many pass catchers Leach had with over 50 catches in a season, then 40 catches and finally the touchdown to Interception ratio at the end of the season.
Leach teams at Tech grew over four years to multiple pass catchers and multiple catchers who snagged 70-80 balls in a season. Likewise, the quarterbacks tendency to build real estate in touchdowns and protect the football grew.
The area under the curve represents positive play by quarterbacks at Texas Tech - the ability to throw touchdowns and not interceptions and that is directly affected by the number of quality pass catchers in the program, plus offensive linemen and quarterbacks.
The same can be said at Washington State, where they went from only two receivers over 50 balls in a year, to as many as four in a season and a 100 catch per year receiver.
Likewise, you can see over time, Leach quarterbacks increased positive real estate as they recruited players to fit their needs.
If you look back at the chart above, Mississippi State is on pace to be the worst start in a Leach era, with a running back leading the team in receptions, and only player over 50 catches, and a negative touchdown to interception ratio. If this holds, it would be the worst start ever for Leach at a school. Most of that will get blamed on the league he is coaching in or a defensive scheme, and while some of that is true, the Bulldogs need players and lots of them to run this system.
What you will see is a “V - shaped” curve at Mississippi State for quarterbacks and this offense over the next few years, based on data available.
The Bulldogs will continue to trend negative, and over time back positive. But all of this will take time and patience.
An old ball coach once said, you can X and O all you want, but if Jimmy and Joe aren’t on the team, you are that type of team in name only.
Mississippi State is “air raid: right now in name only - Once Leach gets a few Jimmy’s and a Joe or two, this thing will look much differently. Just look at the trajectory above at Texas Tech and Washington State - there you will find your time line and the time needed for this project to work.
Note: photos courtesy of 247sports.com
