2024 North Carolina Football Projections on the HG

Mar 5

Mar 5 2024 North Carolina Football Projections on the HG

Jake Wimberly

Brook Sperandeo Contributing

What’s to like:

North Carolina has acquired solid talent from the transfer portal. Quarterback Max Johnson, running back Darwin Barlow, and Tight End Jake Johnson. All of these transfers will be factors on the field in 2024. Per the Hourglass, Tarheels ranks 28th nationally in recruiting.

Mac Brown continues to build a solid nucleus on Tobacco Road and the Heels should again be one of the more competitive teams in the ACC and have a chance to be in the playoff conversation come November.

What’s not to like:

The biggest question at this point in the year is Max Johnson’s ability to adapt to the new offense under Mac Brown, as this will be Max’s third school to play for.

The Heels have averaged above 30 points per game the last four years and they expect to continue that trend with Johnson now calling the shots.

North Carolina’s defense has declined over the last few years. In 2021 they ranked 95th nationally in defensive efficiency and in 2023 they sit at 97th.

For this team to be a realistic contender for the ACC Championship, they will have to move that defensive number up quite a bit.

What does the Hourglass say?

2024 North Carolina –The ACC (9-3)

Four-year analytic percentage of North Carolina = 78 percent

2024 North Carolina Analytics

National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 28th - inside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.

National Coaching Ranking: Mac Brown - 30th in the country, 6th in The ACC;

2024 coaching value= 8 (average 2023 Power 5 coaching value= 8.35) Mac Brown is still considered one of the better coaches in college football.

ODE Analytics for 2023 nationally:

Offensive Rank: 20th

Defensive Rank: 72nd

Quarterback Play: Max Johnson- ranked 34th in the Power 5, 10th in the ACC; 2024 QB value=11.5. Above the (Power 5 average- 14.78)

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: North Carolina has a 3 on a scale of 1-5, skill talent is considerable.

From Vegas:

North Carolina ATS in 2023: 6-7-0

North Carolina at home: 4-3-0

North Carolina on the road:1-3-0

North Carolina at neutral site: 1-1-0

FINAL THOUGHTS:

There are a number of things to say about the North Carolina college football team and how things will play out for the upcoming 2024 season. With all of the transfers coming through this year, it makes sense to think this could be a promising year for North Carolina as long as the defense can play their part.

Carolina should still be in the upper half of the conference as they deal with the Clemson’s, Florida States, Miami’s and NC State’s of the world.

2024 Schedule Analysis:

Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.