Comparing HG Rankings with the CFB Playoff Rankings three weeks into the process

By John Luke McCord

If you keep up with the HourGlass then you’ve probably been following our College Football Playoff Projector Poll each week. And you also know that it serves our updated rankings each week(we do a throwback top 20), as well. In recent weeks, it’s also become a nice comparison tool to put beside updated rankings from the College Football Playoff committee. 

Let’s take a look at three crucial areas that surfaced in my personal comparison:

First let’s start with the most obvious, the top four. If you look back to week 9 HourGlass rankings(10/30/2018 - same day as first CFB Playoff rankings reveal) it was Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and LSU. LSU would move out of the following two updates, to be replaced by Michigan. The CFB Playoff committee had LSU third three weeks ago, however, and had to move Notre Dame up the following week. The Irish have also stuck at #3 in the CFB Playoff rankings, while Michigan has been at #4 in each of the previous two weeks. 

This highlights the fact that the HourGlass had a slightly more keen feeling on the fighting Irish than the committee did. While Notre Dame has spent the last few weeks submitting their resume as the clear cut favorite behind Bama and Clemson, our analytics knew they were before anyone else. 

Now let’s shift our focus to the five and six spots. In the initial CFB Playoff rankings, the committee had Michigan fifth and Georgia sixth, which mirrored the HourGlass rankings for that week. However, when LSU lost it’s footing and Michigan moved up is when things went a bit of a different direction. While both rankings have listed Georgia at #5 the past two weeks, the committee decided Oklahoma was most worthy of the #6 spot in the two previous rankings updates. But the HourGlass has instead pegged Ohio State for that spot over that time. 

Sure, everyone would love to see Oklahoma and their Heisman darling at quarterback in Kyler Murray in the playoff. But there’s no questioning that the Buckeyes play in a more difficult league and their resume reflects that, as their wins over Penn State, Michigan State and TCU outweigh wins over TCU and Texas for the Sooners. This week, as well as potentially conference championship weekend, could truly decide this debate. Ohio State hosts rival Michigan(who they have beaten 13 of the last 14 times the two have played), while Oklahoma travels to face their toughest foe yet in West Virginia. 

Finally, let’s take a look at the teams that have been in the top 10 in each of the first three CFB Playoff rankings of 2018-19. Alongside the teams that have been in the HG Top 10 during that same period of time. 

CFB Playoff Rankings - Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Michigan, Georgia, Oklahoma, Washington State, and Ohio State. That’s eight teams. 

HG Rankings - Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, LSU, Michigan, Georgia, Oklahoma, Washington State, and Ohio State. That nine teams. 

As you can tell, based on this overall analysis, the HourGlass rankings have been more consistent at the top. That includes consistency within the top four, as well as the overall top 10. Remember, HourGlass analytics mostly evaluate teams/games based on coaching, quarterback play and overall talent. 

Keep up with HourGlass rankings updates each week via the website or our social media platforms to know which teams will be in the final four come January. And be sure to put the HourGlass’s accuracy to work for you by subscribing to our weekly picks.

CFB Playoff Rankings

Week 9 // 10-30-18

1. Alabama

2. Clemson

3. LSU

4. Notre Dame

5. Michigan

6. Georgia

7. Oklahoma

8. Washington State

9. Kentucky

10. Ohio State

11. Florida

12. UCF

13. West Virginia

14. Penn State

15. Utah

16. Iowa

17. Texas

18. Mississippi State

19. Syracuse

20. Texas A&M

21. NC State

22. Boston College

23. Fresno State

24. Iowa State

25. Virginia

Week 10 // 11-6-18

1. Alabama

2. Clemson

3. Notre Dame

4. Michigan

5. Georgia

6. Oklahoma

7. LSU

8. Washington State

9. West Virginia

10. Ohio State

11. Kentucky

12. UCF

13. Syracuse

14. NC State

15. Florida

16. Mississippi State

17. Boston College

18. Michigan State

19. Texas

20. Penn State

21. Iowa

22. Iowa State

23. Fresno State

24. Auburn

25. Washington

Week 11 // 11-13-18

1. Alabama

2. Clemson

3. Notre Dame

4. Michigan

5. Georgia

6. Oklahoma

7. LSU

8. Washington State

9. West Virginia

10. Ohio State

11. UCF

12. Syracuse

13. Florida

14. Penn State

15. Texas

16. Iowa State

17. Kentucky

18. Washington

19. Utah

20. Boston College

21. Mississippi State

22. Northwestern

23. Utah State

24. Cincinnati 

25. Boise State

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CFB HourGlass Rankings

Week 9 

1. Alabama

2. Clemson

3. Notre Dame

4. LSU

5. Michigan

6. Georgia

7. Ohio State

8. UCF

9. Oklahoma

10/ Washington State

11. West Virginia

12. Kentucky

13. Florida

14. Penn State

15. Texas

16. Utah

17. Washington

18. Houston

19. Utah State

20. Iowa

Week 10 

1. Alabama

2. Clemson

3. Notre Dame

4. Michigan

5. Georgia

6. Ohio State

7. Oklahoma

8. LSU

9. West Virginia

10. Washington State

11. UCF

12. Kentucky

13. Utah State

14. Syracuse

15. Fresno State

16. Utah

17. Mississippi State

18. Boston College

19. Washington

20. Texas

Week 11

1. Alabama

2. Clemson 

3. Notre Dame

4. Michigan

5. Georgia

6. Ohio State

7. West Virginia

8. Washington State

9. Oklahoma

10. LSU

11. UCF

12. Utah State

13. Syracuse

14. Texas

15. Florida

16. Washington

17. Penn State

18. Cincinnati

19. Iowa State

20. Utah