PAC 12 football primer on the CFBHG - 2020 conference analysis
Jake Wimberly
We continue on our journey towards the 2020 college football season and today we head out west to the PAC 12. We recently posted about the SEC and you can read that here.
We also have installments on the BIG 10, BIG 12, ACC our college football win totals and more on the website - check it out and share with your friends.
First off, it is to note, we are assuming by all accounts the PAC 12 will play football this year and we are seeing signs in the positive every passing day we will play as normal as possible of a college football season.
If anyone needs a great college football season and one that would send a participant to the College Football Playoff, it’s the PAC 12. The PAC 12 has been in the news for all the wrong reasons over the last few years, from revenue and television contract issues, to officiating and more.
The PAC 12 needs Oregon, a USC or someone to take the conference by the horns and lead the way.
Oregon has officially shifted the talent advantage north:
It’s taken almost two decades, a few coaches, and some big moments, but Oregon officially has the best roster talent in the PAC 12. I am going to say it again, the Oregon Ducks have the best roster in the PAC12, but it’s only by a little bit.
Washington recruited much better under Chris Peterson, but now that he is gone, anyone’s guess is as good as mine as to what the Huskies will do in recruiting.
USC should be the lead dog in this conference, but they have slipped recently under Clay Helton, falling as far as 55th this last cycle. Yes the class was small, but USC should be recruiting with the Alabama’s and Ohio State’s of the world. For the first time in a long time, the Trojans are out of our National Championship talent projections.
Stanford, UCLA, Arizona State and Utah are good enough to compete with anyone on a given day and California is quietly moving the needle ever so slightly.
3 Year Talent HG Composite
1 Oregon 91.03
2 Washington 87.69
3 USC 80.00
4 Stanford 79.23
5 UCLA 76.15
6 Arizona State 76.15
7 Utah 70.77
8 California 68.72
9 Colorado 66.41
10 Washington State 57.69
11 Arizona 54.10
12 Oregon State 51.79
Jayden Daniels hopes to continue his success from last year at Arizona State. The talented sophomore gives Herm Edwards a true threat at quarterback. Photo courtesy of 247sports.com
Balance with experience and youth rule the PAC 12 quarterbacks in 2020:
New faces will abound in the state of Washington at Washington State and the U of Washington. Oregon State and Colorado will be breaking in fresh faces and Oregon will look to continue on where Justin Herbert left off.
Jake Bentley will be the shot caller at Utah; as the now former South Carolina signal caller will try to reboot his career out west.
You have to wonder when or if now, will Chip Kelly get what he wants out of Dorian Thompson - Robinson or will he need to look elsewhere.
Chase Garbers has been effective at California, but needs to elevate his game to give the Golden Bears a chance at the next ring in the conference.
Then there is Kedon Slovis at USC and Jayden Daniels at Arizona State. Both quarterbacks have a high ceiling and some feel Slovis has that sauce to become the next big one at USC.
# Team Quarterback Metric
1 USC Kedon Slovis 24.5
2 Arizona State Jayden Daniels 18.9
3 California Chase Garbers 13.8
4 UCLA Dorian Thompson - Robinson 12.7
5 Arizona Grant Gunnell 9.2
6 Utah Jake Bentley * 8.8
7 Oregon Tyler Shough 8
8 Stanford Davis Mills 8
9 Oregon State Tristan Gebbia 2.1
10 Wa. State undecided 2
11 Colorado KD Nixon 1.7
12 Washington Jacob Sirmon 1.5
Chip Kelly needs to show marked improvement in 2020 or UCLA suitors could start to question the hire they made just a few short years ago. Photo courtesy of 247sports.com
PAC 12 coaching has slipped; in need of a recharging of sorts:
Just a few short years ago, the PAC 12 looked like the place to be for college football coaches. Chip Kelly and Kevin Sumlin were hired, Mike Leach was rolling at Washington State, Chris Peterson at Washington and David Shaw had Stanford humming. Oregon was Oregon and even Colorado under then coach Mike MacIntyre was winning.
That was then, this is now and it is why we only use a three year metric on coaches. Things can change in a hurry and the PAC 12 needs some recharge of sorts. Utah’s Kyle Wittingham and Oregon’s Mario Cristobal have stayed the course, but David Shaw needs to have a nice year at Stanford.
Clay Helton is on what seems to be his ninth live at USC and Chip Kelly has struggled mightily out the gate at UCLA.
Justin Wilcox has done an admirable job at California and Herm Edwards might end up actually being the best of the bunch in this conference.
Before we move on, can I ask, where in the hell has Kevin Sumlin gone? Sumlin was just relevant and a huge name a few years ago in the mighty SEC, but now he has worked his way to the bottom of the Pac 12. Johnny Manziel destroys everything he touches it seems.
# Team Coach Metric
1 Utah Kyle Wittingham 12
2 Oregon Mario Cristobal 12
3 Stanford David Shaw 7
4 USC Clay Helton 6
5 Arizona State Herm Edwards 6
6 Wa. State Nick Rolovich 4
7 UCLA Chip Kelly 3
8 California Justin Wilcox 3
9 Washington Jimmy Lake 2
10 Colorado Carl Dorrell 2
11 Arizona Kevin Sumlin 1
12 Or. State Jonathan Smith -3
ODE gets to the meat of a team matter:
A lot of times in college football, we see teams who recruit well and then not perform so well. Sometimes that’s coaching, sometimes that is a miss in the talent evaluation process and some times that’s coaches and how each side of the ball performs as a unit.
Offensive and defensive scoring efficiency can tell you a lot about a program and what is going on with a team. Since the college football playoff - and even back into the BCS, we have seen teams that typically make these stages of college football live around or inside the top 10 in ODE (Offensive, Defensive Efficiency).
Some teams like Oklahoma are superior on offense, annually housing the nations top offense, but defensively they are exposed once on the national scene because their defensive unit is so bad. Is it talent? Probably not; Oklahoma annually recruits in the top ten. Is it coaching? Maybe on the defensive side. Is it culture or toughness? Possibly.
All are great questions on why some teams are good on one side and not so good on the other.
2020 ODE PAC 12 Rankings: NOTE: ODE Ranker is the national ranking of the team as a combined offensive and defensive number together. the O and D ranks are a teams offensive and defensive rankings over the last two years.
Team ODE Ranker O and D Ranks
Utah 9 20 and 5
Washington 10 21 and 11
Oregon 13 16 and 21
USC 29 30 and 49
Stanford 33 28 and 60
Washington State 38 5 and 86
Arizona State 41 42 and 51
California 49 93 and 16
Arizona 70 41 and 94
Colorado 71 56 and 79
UCLA 79 60 and 90
Oregon State 80 38 and 113
No wonder Utah has gotten the love they have over the last two years; when you look at their collective play, they have had the defense of a national champion team on most weekends. Their offense has been close, but still has work to do. For Utah, it’s about moving the recruiting needle north. They need to be better than 7th in this league in roster talent and need a big move nationally to move these numbers.
Again with Washington, new head coach Jimmy Lake has a lot to live up to; the last coach left him in great shape. Oregon is really close on all facets to being a bigtime team nationally and they have been for a while.
Arizona State, California and UCLA need big moves in these numbers this year to get where they want to be.
Scheduling matters and never apologize for scheduling help:
Strength of Schedule Numbers :
NOTE: Number to the right of each team is strictly a mathematical identifier that allows us to rank schedules, derived off 2020 opponents.
1 USC 1104.68
2 Colorado 1002.62
3 Oregon State 954.28
4 Stanford 935.52
5 Oregon 921.61
6 Arizona 912.47
7 California 906.95
8 Washington 865.71
9 Washington State 855.47
10 Arizona State 820.48
11 Utah 789.71
12 UCLA 775.96
USC plays the hardest schedule in this conference and that is just what Clay Helton doesn’t need. Conversely, on the butt end of this, UCLA plays the easiest and that is just what Chip Kelly needs. With a very easy non conference schedule, Kelly needs at the worst a 7-5 record this year.
Expect Utah and Arizona State to have big years, and again schedule is a big reason.
Oregon and Stanford have some challenges and those will determine how big or not their years will be. Oregon hosting Ohio State is essentially a College Football Playoff elimination game. Oregon had a similar situation last year against Auburn.
Intrigue out West in 2020, but again no College Football Invite:
Oregon, Washington, Arizona State and Utah should all have really good years in 2020, but really Oregon has the leagues best shot again at making it to the College Football Playoff.
That week two game against Ohio State is not just a huge game for the Ducks; that is a huge game for the conference.
Arizona State should take major steps this year and if Herm Edwards continues on his current climb, he is about to make the Sun Devils a national story.
Oregon defeats Arizona State for the PAC 12 title and the PAC will again have to settle for a New Years Six game.
All photos courtesy of 247sports.com
