SEC football primer on the CFBHG - 2020 conference analysis

Jake Wimberly

Today is May 3rd and it feels like 2020 has been going on for two years. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel and at the end of that tunnel is college football.

We have already punched out our power rankings, final rankings, given you win totals for all 130 teams and a national champion. Today we start looking at the conferences individually and we will look at the SEC first. Last year LSU went from good to great behind Joe Burrow and an LSU offense that averaged 48 points per game. The LSU defense ended up toting their weight, as they ended the year the 11th best defense in the country via defensive scoring efficiency.

Is there an LSU in the pack this year in the SEC; a team that goes from good to great; if you listen to Kellen Mond - it’s Texas A&M.

Kellen Mond wants to make the Aggies the 2020 version of the LSU Tigers and get Texas A&M to the Playoff. Photo courtesy of 247sports.com

Could it be Florid and Dan Mullen - with a returning Quarterback in Kyle Trask that could be the best in the league in 2020?

All of these questions will unfold this year in what will be the oddest college football season we may have ever seen.

SEC talent is supreme:

Talent will again abound in the SEC in 2020, after a year this year that saw a massive number of SEC players again taken in the NFL Draft - look for another big run on talent in the south. Eleven of our top 30 teams on our talent metric are SEC teams, with Georgia leading the nation on our three year roster talent scale.

Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Florida and Texas A&M all have talent capable of making a run to the college football Playoff. Below is our rankings of the SEC roster talent; ranking to the left in the league - metric number that is used within our overall team evaluation.

3 Year Talent HG Composite

1 Georgia 97.95

2 Alabama 95.38

3 LSU 92.31

4 Texas A&M 92.31

5 Florida 91.79

6 Auburn 91.54

7 Tennessee 89.23

8 South Carolina 85.64

9 Miss. State 79.49

10 Ole Miss 76.41

11 Kentucky 75.64

12 Arkansas 73.33

13 Missouri 66.67

14 Vanderbilt 61.03

The biggest question on talent is down in Baton Rouge - where the Tigers lost so much to the NFL and attrition. While Ed Orgeron and his staff are elite recruiters, losing that much talent in a given year is hard for anyone to not only overcome, but replace and remain the same.

SEC quarterbacks reboot in 2020:

This past year we saw the likes of Tua, Burrow, Fromm and it’s been a fun few years in the SEC from the quarterbacks. Now we are at a recycling point, where teams refresh, find new stars and this year we will find new stars or emerging stars in the league.

Kyle Trask looks to lead Florida back to the SEC Championship and give the Gators a shot at the College Football Playoff. Photo courtesy of 247sports.com

This year there are great stories that will abound around the league, from what will Ole Miss and John Rhys Plumlee look like under first year head coach Lane Kiffin? Staying in the state of Mississippi, what will first year head coach Mike Leach do with Stanford transfer KJ Costello?

How about down on the Planes where Bo Nix was call “God Made” for Gus Malzahn a year ago. What does he look like in year two? Or - Jamie Newman over at Georgia; can the Wake Forest transfer send the Dogs back to the Playoff?

Several other great stories around the league with young, new quarterbacks and transfers are on the way. Below are our 2020 quarterback rankings heading into the season. Our rankings are based on production prior to this year and actual data we have on each quarterback.

# Team Quarterback Metric

1 Florida Kyle Trask 21.9

2 Georgia * Jamie Newman 19.9

3 Texas A&M Kellen Mond 15.9

4 Auburn Bo Nix 14.5

5 Miss. State * KJ Costello 13.5

6 Alabama Mac Jones 12.5

7 Tennessee Jarrett Guarantano 10.1

8 South Carolina Ryan Hilinski 8.4

9 Arkansas * Felipe Franks 7.8

10 Kentucky Terry Wilson 6.3

11 Ole Miss John Rhys Plumlee 6.1

12 LSU Myles Brennan 2.7

13 Missouri Taylor Powell 1.3

14 Vanderbilt Deuce Wallace 1.1

SEC coaching in a league of its own:

Ed Orgeron became the talk of the town in 2019, and proved he belongs in the conversation of elite SEC coaches; now we will see if he can stay there.

Nick Saban is still the king of SEC coaches, but several will have a say moving forward on how the conference shakes out.

2020 coaching rankings for the SEC:

# Team Coach Metric

1 Alabama Nick Saban 34

2 Georgia Kirby Smart 29

3 LSU Ed Orgeron 16

4 Auburn Gus Malzahn 14

5 Florida Dan Mullen 12

6 Texas A&M Jimbo Fisher 11

7 Miss. State Mike Leach 10

8 Kentucky Mark Stoops 9

9 Ole Miss Lane Kiffin 7

10 Tennessee Jeremy Pruitt 3

11 Missouri Eliah Drinkwitz 2

12 Arkansas Sam Pittman 2

13 South Carolina Will Muschamp -5

14 Vanderbilt Derek Mason -9

The SEC welcomes in four new coaches in Lane Kiffin, Mike Leach, Ellah Drinkwitz and Sam Pittman. All four coaches will have questions to answer and look to get their programs going in the right direction in 2020. What they do not have the luxury of - is a spring practice do to COVID - 19.

Mark Stoops continues to be the best Kentucky coach in forever not named Bear Bryant; Jeremy Pruitt showed signs last year of turning around Rocky Top and Gus Malzahn is hanging in “there” down on the Plains.

Dan Mullen has done a great job at Florida, but will have to get the Gators over the Georgia hump if he ultimately wants to win over Gainesville.

Jimbo Fisher is in year three of his 75 million dollar contract and many expect this team to compete and be in the thick of things in November - I am one of those people.

Overall, you will not find a league in college football that has the name recognition, clout and power this group has in 2020.

ODE gets to the meat of a team matter:

A lot of times in college football, we see teams who recruit well and then not perform so well. Sometimes that’s coaching, sometimes that is a miss in the talent evaluation process and some times that’s coaches and how each side of the ball performs as a unit.

Offensive and defensive scoring efficiency can tell you a lot about a program and what is going on with a team. Since the college football playoff - and even back into the BCS, we have seen teams that typically make these stages of college football live around or inside the top 10 in ODE (Offensive, Defensive Efficiency).

Some teams like Oklahoma are superior on offense, annually housing the nations top offense, but defensively they are exposed once on the national scene because their defensive unit is so bad. Is it talent? Probably not; Oklahoma annually recruits in the top ten. Is it coaching? Maybe on the defensive side. Is it culture or toughness? Possibly.

All are great questions on why some teams are good on one side and not so good on the other.

2020 ODE SEC Rankings: NOTE: ODE Ranker is the national ranking of the team as a combined offensive and defensive number together. the O and D ranks are a teams offensive and defensive rankings over the last two years.

Team ODE Ranker O and D Ranks

Alabama 1 2 and 3

Georgia 3 7 and 2

LSU 4 8 and 6

Florida 8 11 and 14

Missouri 18 31 and 19

Auburn 19 45 and 7

Miss. State 20 27 and 30

Texas A&M 21 22 and 40

Kentucky 27 53 and 22

South Carolina 37 57 and 32

Tennessee 54 80 and 35

Ole Miss 58 32 and 87

Vanderbilt 84 74 and 89

Arkansas 111 113 and 95

These numbers tell you a lot - for instance, You can see why Alabama, Georgia and now LSU have lived in the national spotlight. All three are inside the nations top ten in this category.

Florida is as well, but needs a slight bump to get over the hump here. Everyone is always perplexed at how Missouri always ends up in a bowl with their recruiting metric. Here you go; they coach and develop and play well on both sides.

For a team like Texas A&M to really make a run this year, you need to see drastic improvement on both sides of the ball for Jimbo Fishers club.

Look for Ole Miss, Tennessee and Arkansas to all make strides in 2020 in the right way.

Scheduling matters and never apologize for scheduling help:

Strength of Schedule Numbers :

NOTE: Number to the right of each team is strictly a mathematical identifier that allows us to rank schedules, derived off 2020 opponents.

1 Auburn 1086.84

2 South Carolina 1083.03

3 LSU 1080.12

4 Arkansas 1068.93

5 Alabama 1067.74

6 Ole Miss 1035.35

7 Tennessee 1024.66

8 Vanderbilt 1017.86

9 Miss. State 994.95

10 Kentucky 971.11

11 Georgia 960.52

12 Texas A&M 931.79

13 Missouri 923.52

14 Florida 891.06

Scheduling matters - who you play, when, where, who you play before a team and after. All of that comes into play and this year Auburn, South Carolina and LSU all play brutal schedules in 2020. For Carolina, that could mean the difference in a bowl or not.

For LSU and Auburn - a chance at the west or not.

Texas A&M and Florida both play some of the easiest schedules in the SEC this year and that’s okay. Never apologize for a schedule that is in your favor. They will both have to ultimately win big games to survive and advance; but their schedules should allow their programs to remain in the conversation until late November.

It’s Still Alabama and Georgia: then Everyone Else:

This should be a great SEC season as always; while much different and lots of unknowns due to COVID-19, but nonetheless, a great one.

I have Georgia losing to Alabama in week three, but defeating the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game and Georgia heading back to the College Football Playoff.

Texas A&M, Florida and Alabama should all play in New Years Six Day games and we will see new stars born, coaches rise and some not make it.

Below is how I have the SEC shaking out in 2020.

NOTE: All photos courtesy of 247sports.com