BIG TEN football primer on the CFBHG - 2020 conference analysis
Jake Wimberly
We continue on our journey towards the 2020 college football season and now we dive into the BIG. We recently posted about the SEC and you can read that here.
The Big Ten returned to the College Football Playoff this past year as Ohio State was just a few plays away from playing LSU for the National Championship.
This year it still looks like Ohio State is the team to beat in the Mid West League - but there are several great story lines like what is going at Minnesota and at Penn State.
Wisconsin is still a media darling - so much that they have the fourth best odds to make the College Football Playoff via ESPN’s football power index.
Will Jim Harbaugh ever get past Ohio State and what will Michigan State look like in a reboot of sorts this year? Nebraska is on year three of Scott Frost and Husker fans have to be running out of patience. Many great story lines in the BIG this year and can Ohio State make it back and win the National Title in 2020?
BIG Ten Talent is only second to the SEC:
Talent in the BIG Ten isn’t SEC talent, but it’s dang good talent. Year in and year out, the NFL is littered with BIG players from top to bottom, and that shouldn’t change anytime soon. Ohio State is the cream of the crop and it shows annually. Over time you could argue the Buckeyes have underachieved nationally with their roster talent.
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Penn State and James Franklin continue to recruit at a high level as does Michigan and Jim Harbaugh, but both teams still need some players and it looks like luck to jump THE Ohio State University.
Nebraska continues to improve on the recruiting trail - it just hasn’t translated on the field for the Corn Huskers. They now have a better three year roster talent metric than their division rival Wisconsin.
Minnesota is on the rise, as is Purdue. Teams like Northwestern and Illinois have to continue to work to improve their rosters or they both will continue to be very inconsistent in the league.
3 Year Talent HG Composite
1 Ohio State 94.10
2 Penn State 89.74
3 Michigan 88.46
4 Nebraska 84.10
5 Wisconsin 74.87
6 Michigan St. 72.82
7 Purdue 72.56
8 Minnesota 71.03
9 Iowa 70.26
10 Maryland 69.49
11 Indiana 63.08
12 Northwestern 60.00
13 Rutgers 53.85
14 Illinois 47.44
Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez looks to lead a Nebraska resurgence of sorts in 2020. Photo courtesy of 247sports.com
BIG Ten quarterbacks in 2020:
Justin Fields is the cream of the crop and will be either one or two in most peoples Heisman selections heading into the year. You can also expect this will be the last year you see Fields in an Ohio State uniform as he will be slated as a top five pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
After Field’s, Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan, who accounted for 38 touchdowns a year ago is next in line in the BIG. Morgan is perfect for head coach PJ Fleck’s offense and makes that team hum.
Jack Coan completed right at 70 percent of his passes for Wisconsin a year ago, and he is a big reason the Badgers are garnering again a lot of love nationally.
Illinois quarterback Brandon Peters tossed 18 touchdowns a year ago, and helped lead a resurgence of sorts for Lovie Smith, but he still needs more to work with.
Indiana quarterback Peyton Ramsey hit the transfer portal and will suite it up for Northwestern in 2020 and Nebraska’s Adrian Martinez needs to live up to the hype he was given to give the Huskers a chance in their division come November. Martinez was only +1 in the touchdown to interception ratio and has to make plays in the passing game.
BIG Ten Quarterback Rankings 2020
# Team Quarterback Metric
1 Ohio State Justin Fields 44.3
2 Minnesota Tanner Morgan 26.7
3 Penn State Sean Clifford 19.7
4 Wisconsin Jack Coan 16.7
5 Illinois Brandon Peters 12.9
6 Indiana Michael Phenix Jr. 12.5
7 Northwestern * Peyton Ramsey 12.5
8 Maryland Josh Jackson 7.2
9 Nebraska Adrian Martinez 6.7
10 Purdue Jack Plummer 4.6
11 Michigan Dylan McCaffrey 4.3
12 Iowa Spencer Petras 3.3
13 Michigan State Rocky Lombardi 2.1
14 Rutgers Johnny Langan 1.5
BIG Ten coaching see’s old faces, new and some in a transition year:
Ryan Day had no problem adjusting as the head man at Ohio State a year ago, after Urban Meyer stepped away from football. 2020 should be another banner year for Day, who is fourth on our list of BIG coaches, but should move up to the top by years end.
James Franklin is Mr. Consistency at Penn State and is a College Football Playoff berth away from being in the same conversation with the elites. The same can be said for Chryst at Wisconsin - as they are in the conversation in the BIG every year; he just needs a bit more talent on his roster.
We have talked before at nausea about Jim Harbaugh. He has shown he can win you 9-10 games a year, but until he punches his ticket to the BIG Title Game, people have checked out on what Harbaugh has to say.
PJ Fleck is doing special things at Minnesota and 2020 should be another great year to be a Minnesota fan.
We see two new coaches in Mel Tucker and a return from Greg Schiano - both who will be under the microscope to see if they can turn their respective programs around.
Lovie Smith, Scott Frost and Jeff Brohm need to show the “hay is in the barn”, by years end at their programs.
2020 coaching rankings for the SEC:
# Team Coach Metric
1 Penn State James Franklin 20
2 Wisconsin Paul Chryst 19
3 Michigan Jim Harbaugh 19
4 Ohio State Ryan Day 18
5 Iowa Kirk Ferentz 10
6 Minnesota P.J. Fleck 8
7 Michigan State Mel Tucker 2
8 Rutgers Greg Schiano 2
9 Northwestern Pat Fitzgerald -1
10 Purdue Jeff Brohm -3
11 Indiana Tom Allen -3
12 Maryland Mike Locksley -4
13 Nebraska Scott Frost -4
14 Illinois Lovie Smith -4
2019 was a turnaround for Illinois and Lovie Smith. Recruiting was not great though for the Illini in the cycle. 2020 will be a pivotal year for the program. Photo courtesy of 247sports.com
ODE gets to the meat of a team matter:
A lot of times in college football, we see teams who recruit well and then not perform so well. Sometimes that’s coaching, sometimes that is a miss in the talent evaluation process and some times that’s coaches and how each side of the ball performs as a unit.
Offensive and defensive scoring efficiency can tell you a lot about a program and what is going on with a team. Since the college football playoff - and even back into the BCS, we have seen teams that typically make these stages of college football live around or inside the top 10 in ODE (Offensive, Defensive Efficiency).
Some teams like Oklahoma are superior on offense, annually housing the nations top offense, but defensively they are exposed once on the national scene because their defensive unit is so bad. Is it talent? Probably not; Oklahoma annually recruits in the top ten. Is it coaching? Maybe on the defensive side. Is it culture or toughness? Possibly.
All are great questions on why some teams are good on one side and not so good on the other.
2020 ODE BIG 10 Rankings: NOTE: ODE Ranker is the national ranking of the team as a combined offensive and defensive number together. the O and D ranks are a teams offensive and defensive rankings over the last two years.
Team ODE Ranker O and D Ranks
1 Michigan 6 10 and 10
2 Ohio State 7 3 and 20
3 Penn State 12 17 and 17
4 Wisconsin 14 19 and 23
5 Iowa 15 37 and 9
6 Minnesota 26 33 and 39
7 Indiana 32 23 and 63
8 Michigan State 45 91 and 8
9 Purdue 50 29 and 81
10 Nebraska 52 54 and 61
11 Northwestern 67 105 and 25
12 Maryland 76 87 and 59
13 Illinois 106 94 and 93
14 Rutgers 118 125 and 104
These numbers tell you a lot - for instance, Michigan being at the top of the BIG is a huge reason I projected Michigan to the Playoff in 2019. The Wolverine’s just didn’t play with consistency or the quarterback play necessary to make the move.
Ohio State has all the numbers, especially offensively - you would like to see that defensive number improve though. Penn State and Wisconsin are good, but still need those numbers to trend toward the top ten to make a serious playoff push. Expect Minnesota’s numbers to improve, and if Michigan State just had an offense!
The rest of the pack of the BIG, these numbers tell the stories of their teams when you look at their respective rankings on offense and defense the last two years.
Scheduling matters and never apologize for scheduling help:
Strength of Schedule Numbers :
NOTE: Number to the right of each team is strictly a mathematical identifier that allows us to rank schedules, derived off 2020 opponents.
1 Michigan State 1050.03
2 Michigan 1022.52
3 Maryland 1006.14
4 Iowa 970.61
5 Rutgers 968.29
6 Nebraska 955.09
7 Indiana 920.51
8 Purdue 913.3
9 Penn State 905.92
10 Ohio State 893.03
11 Wisconsin 866.76
12 Illinois 865.1
13 Northwestern 861.94
14 Minnesota 857.78
Scheduling matters - who you play, when, where, who you play before a team and after. If schedules are any indicator, it will be a rough year for Mel Tucker in year one at Michigan State, and Jim Harbaugh has his work cut out with their schedule as they open with Washington, and play a brutal four game stretch from mid September to Ocotober.
Ohio State and Wisconsin both have manageable schedules, which is one of the reasons the media is high on both, particularly Wisconsin. However, they have a three game stretch of at Michigan, Notre Dame, Minnesota that will decide their fate. Here is where the lack of top end talent will tend to show.
Speaking of Minnesota, they have the easiest schedule in the BIG - another reason we feel they will have a banner year in 2020.
Ohio State is poised for a BIG year.
I don’t want to say it’s Ohio State and everyone else, but it is Ohio State and everyone else. There are some great stories to follow in the BIG - but none bigger than Justin Fields and Ohio State as they pursue the National Championship in 2020.
Below is how I have the BIG Ten shaking out in 2020.
NOTE: All photos, courtesy of 247sports.com
