2020 UCLA football predictions on the HG

What’s to like:

Chip Kelly in year three? Coming off the disaster of the end of the Jim Mora era, things have not gone as quickly as you would think for Kelly, who is back in college after a stint in the NFL.

Kelly has posted back to back losing seasons, but has improved in the first two years from three wins to four.

The Bruins do return quarterback Dorian Thompson Robinson and you would have to think, after a productive sophomore season, this year will be a really good year for DTR in Kelly’s offense.

Also, the Bruins have trended up slightly in recruiting and carry our 27th best roster in the country.

What’s not to like:

Defense; or lack of defense shall we say. The Bruins rank 90th in our two-year defensive scoring efficiency tracker. In Kelly’s first two years, the Bruins have given up on average 34 points per game and nine times in two years, they have given up 40 or more points.

If this team is going to do much better than four wins in a season, they have to get this thing going defensively.

Also, it’s been five years since the Bruins posted a winning record inside their own division. Kelly has to show marked improvement in year three.

What does the Hourglass Say?

2020 UCLA pick: Bruins 8-4 overall, 5-4 in the PAC 12 South

2019 HG analytics pick: 8-4; Actual Record 4-8 (66 percent)

 2018 Analytics Pick 8-4; Actual Record 3-9 (58 percent accuracy)

2017 Analytics Pick 9-3; Actual Record 6-6 (75 percent accuracy)

Three-year analytic percentage on UCLA = 67 percent

2020 UCLA Analytics –

Hour Glass National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 27th – Inside our Realistic College Football Playoff bust line for talent. The Bruins on paper have enough talent, to make the College Football Playoff

National Coaching Rank for Chip Kelly on HG Scale: 38th (Chip Kelly 2020 coaching value set at 3) – Average coaching value for 2020 set at 6.5. – Kelly has performed below average since returning to college from the National Football League.

Returning UCLA quarterback play rated 25th in the country in our Power Five quarterback Rankings. Average quarterback metric for 2020 set at 11.66.  UCLA quarterback metric value is 12.7 – which makes the position, just above average.

ODE Analytics – NOTE: ODE is our offensive and defensive scoring efficiency ranking for each team. We use a two-year evaluation of each program.

UCLA ranks 79th in the country in our 2020 ODE evaluation. Offensively they have a ranking of 60th in the country and defensively 90th in the country.

FINAL THOUGHTS:

I haven’t been as strong on UCLA projections as most other teams. You have to wonder is there a culture issue within the program, because this team should not be as bad as they have been the last two years.

The Bruins play the 79th hardest schedule on our metric board in 2020, and the next to easiest schedule in the PAC 12.

I have Kelly getting things back on the positive side of the coin in 2020 for the program. If he doesn’t get the Bruins to a bowl this year, many will begin to wonder if he is the man for the job moving forward.

Projected Hour Glass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.