2020 Alabama football predictions on the HG

By Jake Wimberly

What’s to like:

It’s Alabama and as long as Nick Saban is at the helm, there is a lot to like about Alabama.

Najee Harris returns and could be the best back in the SEC in 2020. Pair Harris with Brian Robinson Jr. and Kelian Robinson and this backfield should be a mighty fine one for the Crimson Tide.

Alabama still has several big-time pass catchers; offensive linemen and the Tide have the third best roster talent in the country – not far at all behind Georgia and Texas.

The key for Alabama will be finding the spark at quarterback, be in Mac Jones or Bryce Young to continue bringing high end play at the most important position in football.

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What’s not to like:

Roster turnover and coaching turnover – Alabama has had their share of guys leaving early for the NFL and coaches moving in and out of the program. You have to wonder at what point will that take effect in Tuscaloosa?  Also, Scott Cochran, who is now on the Georgia staff; what does that do for long tern affects for the strength and conditioning at Alabama?

Finally – the Tide defense in big games. The last three years against top 15 opponents, Alabama is giving up well north of 30 points per game in those contests.  For Alabama to regain the top seat in college football, they are going to have to reset on the defensive side of the ball.

What does the Hourglass Say?

2020 Alabama pick:  12-0; 8-0 in the SEC – runner up losing the SEC Championship Game.  

2019 HG analytics pick: 12-0; Actual Record 10-2 (92 percent)

2018 Analytics Pick 12-0; Actual Record 12-0 (100 percent accuracy)

2017 Analytics Pick 12-0; Actual Record 11-1 (96 percent accuracy)

Three-year analytic percentage on Alabama = 92 percent

 2020 Alabama Analytics –

Hour Glass National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 3rd – Inside our Realistic College Football Playoff bust line. Alabama has the roster talent to win the national championship.

National Coaching Rank for Nick Saban on HG Scale: 2nd  (Nick Saban 2020 coaching value set at 34 – Average coaching value for 2020 set at 6.5. – Saban is considered elite on our scale.

ODE Analytics – NOTE: ODE is our offensive and defensive scoring efficiency ranking for each team. We use a two-year evaluation of each program.

Alabama ranks 1st in the country in our 2020 ODE evaluation. Offensively they have a ranking of 2nd in the country and defensively 3rd in the country.

FINAL THOUGHTS:

Alabama is Alabama; meaning they will more years than not be in the conversation for the National Championship, as long as Nick Saban is around.

Alabama has a great opener against USC, then a week three matchup with Georgia, as well as a trip to LSU and hosting Texas A&M and Auburn.

If Alabama can figure out their quarterback situation and straighten out their defense, Alabama could be back in the College Football Playoff.

However, if things don’t click defensively, or the quarterback play is marginal, Alabama could drop a game or two with this schedule.

Projected Hour Glass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.