College Football 2021 is here - Welcome back to the Hourglass
Jake Wimberly
2020 was unlike anything any of us had ever seen and hopefully never will again. And for the sports world the same can be said, however, Alabama took a very weird year and turned it into arguably the greatest year for a college football team maybe ever.
The Crimson Tide ran through a 10 game SEC schedule, won a Southeastern Conference Championship and dominated Notre Dame and Ohio State to claim the National Title.
We missed the boat on Alabama as we projected this time last year, Clemson and Ohio State would tie up for the title game and Alabama would end up 12-1 on the season.
What we didn’t see was Mac Jones and a record breaking offense in route to a dominating season.
Mac Jones took over college football in 2020. Will there be another quarterback come from nowhere to do the same in 2021?
As we turn to 2021, and start dissecting the field of 129 teams, the question looms - is there a team that will rise above all like Alabama last year, or LSU the year before? A quarterback like Joe Burrow or Mac Jones who will dominate college football or a wide receiver like Devonta Smith who will be unstoppable?
All of those questions are on the table as we turn to 2021 and we start here with the Hourglass.
The Hourglass is an analytical system I tabbed seven years ago that involves a three year recruiting metric, coaching rankings, quarterback play, offensive and defensive scoring efficiency, strength of schedule, and now the impact ball catcher metric - and all of those parameters bring a team stamp or number for every team.
We can take those numbers, comfortably predict every team’s win total and formulate Vegas lines and challenge lines and totals in the season with our Wim’s Winners picks during football.
So let’s get going in 2021 - as this is our introductory piece, with team previews, our picks for the College Football Playoff, Conference Champions and a National Champion to come.
There are no Cinderella’s in College Football:
We know it starts with talent - It’s the Jimmy’s and the Joe’s - and of course we have some really good X’s and O’s out there today, but without talent you aren’t sneaking in the playoff and winning the title. We use a three year talent metric to rank talent and adjust as much as possible off attrition.
Our talent is based on three tiers of talent in Division One. The Realistic Championship Talent Metric, the Realistic College Football Playoff Metric , then everyone else.
Kirby Smart has recruited the best talent in college football over the last three years, and now the pressure for his club to produce is on.
If you are in the first group, you have the talent to win the title. The second group - on paper, you have the talent to get to the playoff and the last group, you have no shot based on decades of numbers and evaluation.
Realistic National Championship Talent Metric
1 Georgia 98.21
2 Alabama 97.95
3 LSU 96.15
4 Texas A&M 95.64
5 Clemson 94.87
6 Ohio State 94.62
7 Oregon 93.59
8 Oklahoma 92.82
9 Texas 92.56
10 Florida 92.05
11 Michigan 91.54
12 Tennessee 90.26
13 Notre Dame 89.49
14 Auburn 87.95
15 Penn State 87.44
16 Miami 86.41
Realistic College Football Playoff Metric
17 Nebraska 84.62
18 Florida State 84.62
19 North Carolina 83.85
20 Washington 82.56
21 Wisconsin 82.31
22 Miss. State 80.51
23 Arkansas 79.74
24 Ole Miss 79.74
25 USC 79.23
26 Kentucky 76.92
27 Stanford 76.41
28 Iowa 74.87
29 NC State 73.33
30 UCLA 73.08
If you are below this line - You have no shot at the big picture
31 Utah 73.08
32 California 72.56
33 Maryland 71.79
34 Arizona State 71.79
35 Minnesota 70.51
36 Missouri 70.51
37 South Carolina 70.51
38 Michigan State 70.26
39 Virginia 69.49
40 Oklahoma State 68.97
41 TCU 68.72
42 Pittsburgh 68.21
43 Georgia Tech 68.21
44 West Virginia 67.95
45 Purdue 66.41
46 Baylor 65.90
47 Virginia Tech 63.85
48 Colorado 63.33
49 Northwestern 62.56
50 Indiana 61.54
We have all 129 teams ranked, and we will do a deep dive on all the talent soon. But if you are in the last tier, by talent alone, you have no shot without a remarkable coach, and a quarterback who has a monumental season.
Someone in group number one will without a doubt win the National Title and your Final Four will all likely come from this group.
Coaching Matters
I rank coaches on a three year moving scale, because a lot can happen in three years. It is up to the head coach to decide who he hires, fires, moves around and more. The head coach is really an acting CEO of every corporation (team) and it is up to that individual to make sure the ship is running properly.
New coaches get a modified score - with the offensive coordinators getting a slightly better nod than a defensive coordinator who might be hired as a head coach.
Despite embarrassing playoff loses, Brian Kelly has made Notre Dame again apart of the National Conversation.
Top 20 Power Five Coaches for 2021
# Team Coach HGMS
1 Alabama Nick Saban 38
2 Clemson Dabo Swinney 35
3 Oklahoma Lincoln Riley 32
4 Ohio State Ryan Day 31
5 Notre Dame Brian Kelly 25
6 Georgia Kirby Smart 24
7 Florida Dan Mullen 19
8 Wisconsin Paul Chryst 18
9 Penn State James Franklin 17
10 Michigan Jim Harbaugh 15
11 LSU Ed Orgeron 14
12 Texas A&M Jimbo Fisher 14
13 Iowa State Matt Campbell 13
14 Utah Kyle Wittingham 12
15 Oregon Mario Cristobal 12
16 Iowa Kirk Ferentz 11
17 Auburn Brian Harsin 10
18 Ole Miss Lane Kiffin 10
19 Kentucky Mark Stoops 9
20 Texas Steve Sarkisian 8
Top 20 Group of Five Coaches for 2021
# Team Coach HGMS
1 Cincinnati Luke Fickell 17
2 UAB Bill Clark 13
3 Liberty Hugh Freeze 13
4 UCF Gus Malzahn 13
5 LA-Lafayette Billy Napier 11
6 Buffalo Lance Leipold 11
7 Army Jeff Monken 11
8 LA Tech Skip Holtz 10
9 Ohio Frank Solich 10
10 Costal Carolina Jamey Chadwell 9
11 Toledo Jason Candle 8
12 Utah State Blake Anderson 6
13 Georgia Southern Chad Lunsford 6
14 SMU Sonny Dykes 6
15 Wyoming Craig Bohl 5
16 San Diego State Brady Hoke 5
17 Air Force Troy Calhoun 5
18 Hawaii Todd Graham 5
19 FIU Butch Davis 5
20 Arkansas State Butch Jones 5
We will again, do a special on just coaches, but there are several shifts amongst Power Five coaches and there are several Group of Five coaches to keep your eye on moving forward.
Quarterback makes it all happen
I don’t have to tell you the importance of quarterback and what a great one can do for a program. We have seen really good quarterback play take an average team and make them really good and take a really good team and make them great. This year’s quarterback crop in all of college football is really good. While we are seeing a rebirth of sorts in conferences like the SEC and others - the ACC has right now the best collection of quarterbacks in the Power Five and the AAC has the best in the Group of Five.
Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler could be the best yet to work under Lincoln Riley.
Top 20 Power Five Quarterbacks
1 North Carolina Sam Howell 27.5
2 Oklahoma Spencer Rattler 26.4
3 USC Kedon Slovis 24.5
4 Miami D'Eriq King 21.7
5 Minnesota Tanner Morgan 20.4
6 Ole Miss Matt Corral 19.3
7 Arizona State Jayden Daniels 18.9
8 Notre Dame Jack Coan 16.7
9 Boston College Phil Jurkovec 15.6
10 Penn State Sean Clifford 15.4
11 Utah Charlie Brewer 14.8
12 Iowa State Brock Purdy 13.8
13 California Chase Garbers 13.8
14 Louisville Micale Cunningham 13.6
15 Georgia JT Daniels 13.2
16 Clemson DJ Uiagalelei 13.2
17 UCLA Dorian Thompson - Robinson 12.7
18 West Virginia Jarret Doege 12.6
19 Indiana Michael Phenix Jr. 12.5
20 TCU Max Duggan 11.8
Top 20 Group of Five Quarterbacks
1 UCF Dillon Gabriel 31.6
2 Costal Carolina Grayson McCall 27.5
3 Nevada Carson Strong 26.8
4 Liberty Malik Willis 21.3
5 Cincinnati Desmond Ridder 20.3
6 Arkansas State Layne Hatcher 19.1
7 Western Michigan Kaleb Eleby 18.7
8 Kent State Dustin Crum 17.5
9 Ball State Drew Plitt 17.2
10 Tulane Michael Pratt 15.8
11 Charlotte Chris Reynolds 15.7
12 MTSU Asher O'Hara 13.7
13 Fresno State Jake Haener 12.3
14 Texas State Brady McBride 11.9
15 East Carolina Holton Ahlers 11.7
16 Georgia State Cornelious Brown 11.3
17 Marshall Grant Wells 11.1
18 Troy Gunnar Watson 11.1
19 Boise State Hank Bachmeier 10.8
20 North Texas Austin Aune 10.7
Impact Ball Catcher Metric
We have seen over the last two years what impact wide receivers can do for a team. From what players like Devonta Smith to Ja’Marr Chase and others have meant to their teams. You can make a strong argument today that an impact wide receiver is just as valuable, if not more than an impact running back.
That’s why we created the Impact Ball Catcher Metric for college football and added it to the list of criteria we use to build team profiles. Some receivers you know are heading to a top end level as far as production; while others will rise up this year from their depth charts to take over for their team.
Ohio State’s Chris Olave came back for another year for the Buckeyes and looks to lead the country in receiving in 2021.
Below is our top 25 teams when it comes to having impact ball catchers coming back in college football.
No. Team IBCM
1 Ohio State 10
2 Oklahoma 9
3 Nevada 8.5
4 Memphis 8
5 Tulane 8
6 Alabama 7
7 Arkansas 7
8 Georgia 7
9 Nebraska 7
10 NC State 6
11 Ball State 6
12 SMU 6
13 Tulsa 6
14 LSU 5
15 Penn State 5
16 USC 5
17 Iowa State 5
18 West Virginia 5
19 Costal Carolina 5
20 BYU 5
21 Miami 4.5
22 Boise State 4.5
23 Boston College 4.1
24 Texas 4
25 TCU 4
Handicapping the Field
All of the data I have gives every team a number or identifier - and as I said earlier, those numbers can be used as rankings and used to determine win/loss records, gaming information and more.
Below is the 2021 Power Rankings for 129 teams. Ill have final records and final rankings out later this week.
Lucas Oil Field - home of the 2022 National Championship
Power Five Power Rankings
1 Oklahoma 157.02
2 Alabama 156.16
3 Ohio State 148.44
4 Clemson 147.36
5 Georgia 146.68
6 Notre Dame 138.22
7 LSU 127.98
8 Penn State 127.34
9 Florida 123.27
10 Michigan 115.10
11 Oregon 114.73
12 Texas A&M 113.97
13 Wisconsin 113.94
14 North Carolina 113.83
15 USC 113.42
16 Texas 112.78
17 Miami 109.61
18 Auburn 108.42
19 Ole Miss 102.50
20 Utah 101.88
21 Tennessee 96.31
22 Minnesota 95.95
23 Miss. State 95.61
24 Iowa State 93.76
25 Iowa 93.29
26 Arizona State 92.77
27 Florida State 91.72
28 Washington 89.67
29 Virginia 88.99
30 Stanford 88.55
31 Kentucky 87.83
32 Oklahoma State 85.11
33 Arkansas 84.86
34 UCLA 84.44
35 West Virginia 84.05
36 California 84.00
37 TCU 83.14
38 Nebraska 83.07
39 NC State 81.40
40 Pittsburgh 79.06
41 Missouri 78.59
42 Boston College 78.18
43 Indiana 74.73
44 Louisville 72.81
45 South Carolina 71.63
46 Maryland 70.58
47 Baylor 69.58
48 Northwestern 69.06
49 Purdue 68.72
50 Virginia Tech 68.12
51 Michigan State 67.55
52 Georgia Tech 65.33
53 Wake Forest 62.59
54 Colorado 62.34
55 Vanderbilt 62.22
56 Kansas State 61.25
57 Syracuse 59.96
58 Arizona 57.13
59 Rutgers 56.85
60 Washington State 56.50
61 Texas Tech 53.40
62 Duke 53.34
63 Kansas 51.10
64 BYU 50.82
65 Illinois 46.75
66 Oregon State 37.15
Group of Five Power Rankings
1 UCF 102.95
2 Cincinatti 100.03
3 Boise State 70.82
4 Memphis 67.13
5 SMU 65.05
6 Tulane 61.86
7 Toledo 57.81
8 Costal Carolina 57.29
9 Nevada 55.99
10 Florida Atlantic 54.45
11 LA-Lafayette 52.71
12 North Texas 52.06
13 Liberty 51.04
14 Western Michigan 49.64
15 UTSA 47.09
16 East Carolina 46.39
17 Arkansas State 46.21
18 South Florida 45.55
19 LA Tech 44.44
20 FIU 42.98
21 Houston 41.61
22 Marshall 41.23
23 Southern Miss 40.52
24 Buffalo 39.43
25 App State 39.38
26 Fresno State 38.87
27 Troy 38.54
28 MTSU 37.52
29 Charlotte 36.95
30 Western Kentucky 36.70
31 Miami Ohio 36.53
32 UAB 36.34
33 UNLV 35.88
34 San Diego State 35.73
35 Air Force 34.55
36 Colorado State 33.18
37 Ohio 31.16
38 Temple 31.07
39 Army 30.48
40 Georgia State 29.93
41 Texas State 28.81
42 Georgia Southern 26.44
43 Northern Ill. 26.29
44 Utah State 25.81
45 Wyoming 24.44
46 Ball State 23.97
47 South Alabama 22.50
48 Old Dominion 22.38
49 Kent State 21.81
50 New Mexico 21.36
51 Central Michigan 21.30
52 Eastern Michigan 20.51
53 Hawaii 17.21
54 Rice 16.16
55 Navy 15.26
56 Tulsa 14.01
57 Massachusetts 13.49
58 Bowling Green 12.62
59 San Jose State 12.61
60 LA-Monroe 10.96
61 Akron 2.59
62 UTEP -2.62
Note: all images courtesy of 247sports.com
