Welcome to the 2023 Hourglass
Jake Wimberly
Welcome to the 2023 HourGlass - and with that, welcome to the 2023 college football season. This is our eighth year of what I call the CFBHG (College Football Hour Glass).
The HG is my metric formation, used to predict college football teams records way in advanced with an analytical approach using returning quarterback play, coaching and recruiting trends based on a three year window, wide receiver metrics, offensive and defensive scoring efficiency and more.
This is the last year of the four team playoff, as we will move into the 12 team playoff era in 2024 and with expansion in the BIG 10 and SEC.
Lots of moving parts are abound in college football, from expansion, to robust NIL deals and the transfer portal.
The portal has added a new twist to football analytics and how we collect data to form accurate models and that is ever changing year by year.
Last year we saw increase changes in places like LSU, USC, Ole Miss and more - that had true affects on their outcomes.
This year the biggest is at Colorado with Deion Sanders - but, other places like Notre Dame, Florida State, Wisconsin and others. There is sure to be affects, both positively and negatively at those places.
Without further ado - let’s start coming through data of important metric groups.
Georgia continues to have the best talent in college football and that will not change in 2023.
Top Level Recruiting:
Each year I segment out three tiers of talent - the first, with those that can win the National Championship. You have to have talent to win the entire thing and there are no Cindarella’s in college football. The second tier is teams with enough talent to punch a ticket to the playoff, and the last one is teams that have almost no chance of this. TCU bucked that trend last year, with their remarkable run to the National Title game, but we saw at the end, Georgia’s talent was far superior and just to much for the Horned Frogs.
Championship Level Talent:
1 Alabama 98.97
2 Georgia 97.95
3 Ohio State 97.44
4 LSU 94.36
5 Texas 94.10
6 Oklahoma 93.85
7 Texas A&M 93.59
8 Oregon 93.59
9 Notre Dame 93.33
10 Clemson 93.08
11 Miami 92.31
12 Penn State 90.00
13 Michigan 89.49
14 Florida 88.72
15 Tennessee 87.95
16 North Carolina 86.67
To no surprised, Alabama and Georgia are at the top, along with Ohio State and others that will be in contention for their conference titles this year. But talent alone cannot win you a title. Look at Texas - a team we always ask, are they back? That’s why these models cannot be derived on just talent. Talent is a big chunk of the equation, but not the only criteria.
College Football Playoff Talent:
17 Auburn 86.15
18 USC 85.64
19 Ole Miss 84.36
20 Florida State 83.85
21 Arkansas 81.03
22 Kentucky 81.03
23 Miss. State 80.26
24 Missouri 79.23
25 Iowa 76.67
26 Nebraska 76.41
27 South Carolina 75.90
28 Wisconsin 74.87
29 TCU 74.62
30 Michigan State 74.62
There are teams in this group, that have a great shot if things go right of being in the playoff, and turn into 2024 their chances will increase drastically. Take USC and Florida State, two teams on the rise, that will draw some consideration at their media days to win their conference. TCU as you can see is in the back of the pack, but they got really good quarterback play a year ago and some bounces to get to the playoff.
Rest of the best:
31 Utah 32 Baylor 33 Maryland 34 Washington 35 Stanford 36 Oklahoma State 37 West Virginia 38 UCLA 39 Louisville 40 Texas Tech 41 Minnesota 42 NC State
Jim Harbuagh has Michigan rolling with back to back playoff appearances.
Coaching for 2023:
Nick Saban is without a doubt the best coach to ever coach college football - the resume proves it. But as we move into the 2023 season, the Tide is shifting, literally. I batch rank head coaches to include their staffs, and while many break out coaching units - I treat the coach as the CEO of a company. It is their job to fill staff needs, replace coordinators and when things don’t work out, it’s on them to fix it.
These coaching rankings are on a three year moving trend that weights wins and losses, top 25 wins and losses and more.
These rankings are Power Five coaches only. We will address the Group of Five down the road. The average metric ranking this year for a coach is 9.01 - a weighted average across the landscape. Below is the rankings for all Power Five Coaches.
1 Georgia Kirby Smart 33
2 Alabama Nick Saban 29
3 USC Lincoln Riley 28
4 LSU Brian Kelly 25
5 Ohio State Ryan Day 23
6 Michigan Jim Harbaugh 22
7 Auburn Hugh Freeze 20
8 Clemson Dabo Swinney 20
9 Penn State James Franklin 18
10 Tennessee Josh Heupel 17
11 Wisconsin Luke Fickell 17
12 Utah Kyle Wittingham 15
13 Texas A&M Jimbo Fisher 14
14 Ole Miss Lane Kiffin 14
15 Florida Billy Napier 13
16 Miami Mario Cristobal 13
17 Iowa State Matt Campbell 11
18 TCU Sonny Dykes 11
19 Kentucky Mark Stoops 10
20 North Carolina Mac Brown 10
21 Iowa Kirk Ferentz 10
22 Oklahoma State Mike Gundy 10
23 Baylor Dave Aranda 10
24 UCLA Chip Kelly 9
25 UCF Gus Malzhan 9
26 Michigan State Mel Tucker 8
27 Minnesota P.J. Fleck 8
28 Oregon Dan Landing 8
29 Washington Kalen DeBoer 8
30 Notre Dame Marcus Freeman 8
31 Texas Steve Sarkisian 8
32 BYU Kilani Sitake 8
33 Cincinnati Scott Satterfield 8
34 Arkansas Sam Pittman 7
35 Wake Forest Dave Clawson 7
36 Florida State Mike Norvell 7
37 Pittsburgh Pat Narduzzi 6
38 Louisville Jeff Brohm 6
39 Kansas State Chris Klieman 6
40 South Carolina Shane Beamer 5
41 NC State Dave Doeren 5
42 Duke Mike Elko 5
43 Maryland Mike Locksley 5
44 Nebraska Matt Rhule 5
45 Oregon State Jonathan Smith 5
46 Kansas Lance Leipold 5
47 Missouri Eliah Drinkwitz 4
48 Syracuse Dino Babers 4
49 Illinois Brett Bielema 4
50 Arizona Jedd Fisch 4
51 Oklahoma Brent Venables 4
52 Texas Tech Joey Mcuire 4
53 Miss. State Zach Arnett 3
54 Purdue Ryan Walters 3
55 Indiana Tom Allen 3
56 Arizona State Kenny Dillingham 3
57 Washington State Jake Dickert 3
58 California Justin Wilcox 3
59 Colorado Deion Sanders 3
60 West Virginia Neal Brown 3
61 Vanderbilt Clark Lea 2
62 Boston College Jeff Hafley 2
63 Georgia Tech Brent Key 2
64 Northwestern Pat Fitzgerald 2
65 Rutgers Greg Schiano 2
66 Stanford Troy Taylor 2
67 Virginia Tony Elliott 1
68 Virginia Tech Brent Pry -1
Caleb Williams will have a chance to win back to back Heisman Trophy’s in 2023 and is eyeing a College Football Playoff birth.
Quarterback Play is Premium in 2023
We know how important quarterback play is in football and the playoffs prove it. From Bryce Young, to Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow and the way Stetson Bennett played the last two years - if you don’t have great play at quarterback, you are not winning the National Title.
This year’s crop is full of stars and many reside in the PAC 12. The SEC is in somewhat of a rebuild, and Ohio State will be looking for a new signal caller.
Below are my 2023 power five quarterback rankings; average quarterback play recognized with a number of 14.52. It’s important to remember, these rankings are not based on recruiting of any kind - only on field production, so you might see a ranking at Alabama or Ohio State that might rise through the year, due to the unknown of a player.
1 USC Caleb Williams 38
2 North Carolina Drake Maye 37.3
3 Notre Dame Sam Hartman 29.7
4 Oregon Bo Nix 29.6
5 BYU Jaren Hall 29.1
6 Washington Michael Penix Jr. 28.6
7 Wisconsin Tanner Mordecai 26.5
8 Florida State Jordan Travis 24.2
9 Oklahoma Dillion Gabriel 24.2
10 Utah Cameron Rising 23.9
11 LSU Jayden Daniels 23.8
12 Miss. State Will Rogers 23.5
13 Arkansas KJ Jefferson 23.4
14 Kentucky Devin Leary 22.8
15 Duke Riley Leonard 22
16 Michigan JJ McCarthy 21.7
17 Kansas Jalon Daniels 19.1
18 Oregon State DJ Uiagalelei 18.5
19 Washington State Cameron Ward 18.2
20 NC State Brennan Armstrong 17.5
21 Texas Quinn Ewers 17.2
22 Cincinnati Ben Bryant 16.7
23 Arizona State Drew Pyne 16.2
24 Miami Tyler Van Dyke 15.4
25 Syracuse Garrett Shrader 15.3
26 Maryland Taulia Tagovailoa 14.5
27 Kansas State Will Howard 13.8
28 Arizona Jayden De Laura 13.7
29 Ole Miss Jaxon Dart/ Spencer Sanders 13.6
30 UCF John Rhys Plumlee 13.6
31 Louisville Jack Plummer 13.5
32 Florida Graham Mertz 11.3
33 Penn State Drew Allar 11.1
34 South Carolina Spencer Rattler 10.8
35 Baylor Blake Shapen 10.8
36 Nebraska Casey Thompson 10.4
37 Alabama Jalen Milroe 10
38 Georgia Carson Beck 10
39 Ohio State Kyle Mccord/Devin Brown 10
40 TCU Chandler Morris 10
41 Oklahoma State Alan Bowman 10
42 Michigan State Payton Thome 9.8
43 Purdue Hudson Card 9.7
44 Clemson Cade Klubnik 9.5
45 Iowa Cade McNamara 9.5
46 UCLA Collin Schlee 9.5
47 Vanderbilt AJ Swann 9.2
48 Pittsburgh Phil Jurkovec 9.1
49 Iowa State Hunter Dekkers 8.1
50 Stanford Tanner McKee 7.9
51 Indiana Connor Bazelak 7.8
52 Texas Tech Donavan Smith 7.8
53 Minnesota Athan Kaliakmanis 7.7
54 Wake Forest Mitch Griffis 7.5
55 Georgia Tech Jeff Sims 7.5
56 Colorado Shedeur Sanders 7.5
57 Tennessee Joe Milton III 7.2
58 Missouri Brady Cook 6.3
59 Texas A&M Haynes King 6.2
60 Boston College Emmett Moorhead 5.7
61 Northwestern Ryan Hilinski 5.5
62 Illinois Luke Altmyer 5.5
63 West Virginia Garrett Greene 5.5
64 Auburn Robby Ashford 4.9
65 Virginia Tech Kyron Drones 4.5
66 California Kai Milner 4.5
67 Virginia Jay Woolfolk 3.1
68 Rutgers Evan Simon 2.1
Texas isn’t back just yet, but they are on the right track.
Offensive - Defensive Efficiency Trends:
Efficiency trends are a real thing - and data shows you need to be inside the top 15 or close in offensive and defensive scoring efficiency at the end of the year to have a shot at a championship.
Below are adjusted off last year trends and you can see those that are inside the contender model and those that need improvement. Those without a note, even TCU do not look to have the recruiting number in 2023 to make a national splash.
Rk Team OSE Rk DSE Rk
1 Georgia 1.860 1 1.450 1 Contender
2 Ohio State 1.840 3 0.840 9 Contender
3 Alabama 1.370 7 1.030 5 Contender
4 Tennessee 1.800 4 0.390 33
5 Michigan 1.250 11 1.010 6 Contender
6 Texas 0.940 18 0.800 11 Right Outside
7 Penn State 0.840 21 1.050 4 Right Outside
8 LSU 1.360 9 0.710 17 Right Outside
9 Florida State 1.370 8 0.340 36 Def. improvement
10 Kansas State 0.930 19 0.710 16
11 Utah 0.970 16 0.560 24 Right Outside
12 TCU 1.050 14 0.540 25
13 USC 1.850 2 -0.570 107 Def. improvement
14 Mississippi State 0.470 37 0.760 13
15 Oregon 1.380 6 0.110 48 Def. improvement
16 Oregon State 0.450 38 0.820 10
17 Washington 1.530 5 -0.310 84 Def. Improvement
18 Clemson 0.250 49 0.840 8 Off. Improvement
19 Notre Dame 0.440 39 0.420 31 Off - Def. Improvement
Other factors come into play when truly dictating a teams record, like who they play before and after an opponent and where they play.
We will start dropping team specific previews in the coming days. But below are our 2023 power rankings. Keep in mind, the power rankings are not the final rankings and those will look different throughout the model.
James Franklin has Penn State thinking BIG 10 Championship in 2023.
2023 CFBHG Power Rankings (Power Five)
1 Georgia 148.27
2 Alabama 145.57
3 USC 143.82
4 Notre Dame 141.94
5 LSU 139.80
6 Michigan 137.89
7 Ohio State 137.44
8 Utah 134.68
9 Oregon 130.16
10 North Carolina 129.17
11 Penn State 126.58
12 Oklahoma 122.55
13 Clemson 121.04
14 Texas A&M 116.95
15 Texas 116.45
16 Miami 115.65
17 Wisconsin 113.40
18 Tennessee 112.94
19 Kentucky 112.53
20 Florida State 109.79
21 Ole Miss 109.40
22 Arkansas 107.76
23 Florida 106.97
24 Washington 103.95
25 Auburn 102.88
26 Miss. State 100.98
27 Baylor 97.59
28 Michigan State 92.56
29 Oklahoma State 91.86
30 Iowa 91.36
31 South Carolina 89.95
32 TCU 89.86
33 Maryland 89.60
34 NC State 88.29
35 Missouri 86.04
36 UCLA 85.77
37 Iowa State 84.86
38 Louisville 84.60
39 Nebraska 83.49
40 Minnesota 81.37
41 Stanford 79.29
42 Duke 78.05
43 UCF 77.80
44 Texas Tech 76.03
45 Pittsburgh 75.01
46 BYU 74.43
47 Cincinnati 74.32
48 Syracuse 74.04
49 Arizona 73.93
50 Purdue 73.90
51 West Virginia 73.69
52 Kansas State 72.71
53 Oregon State 72.10
54 Indiana 71.37
55 Vanderbilt 69.97
56 Arizona State 69.80
57 Wake Forest 68.20
58 Washington State 67.60
59 Virginia Tech 67.35
60 Boston College 67.16
61 Colorado 66.52
62 Northwestern 65.86
63 Illinois 63.23
64 Georgia Tech 62.52
65 Rutgers 62.04
66 Virginia 61.88
67 California 61.77
68 Kansas 55.95
Editors Note: All photos courtesy of 247 Sports.
