2021 Iowa State football preview on the HG

May 4

May 4 2021 Iowa State football preview on the HG

Jake Wimberly

What’s to like:

The Matt Campbell affect. Year six of the Matt Campbell era is expected to be a good one, as the Cyclones return a ton of talent off last years team that went 9-3, losing to Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State by an average of 4.5 points. Iowa State returns Breece Hall at running back, who was a 1,500 yard back and quarterback Brock Purdy, who tossed 19 touchdowns to only nine interceptions.

Lot’s of eyes are on this team this year and many feel they could be a dark horse to punch a ticket to the College Football Playoff.

What’s not to like:

Overall talent - and that doesn’t mean this team is bad. This is a good team, but when you start talking College Football Playoff, you better have big boy talent.

The Cyclones rank 52nd on our overall three year talent metric which puts them way outside the needed talent number to make the playoff. Remember, Michigan State is the lowest ranked recruiter to make the Playoff and they were a combined composite of 28th in the country.

Also the schedule - after the bye week on October 9th, the Cyclones play four of their last seven on the road, and at Kansas State, West Virginia and Oklahoma.

They are gonna have to stay healthy and play flawless to run that schedule.

What does the Hourglass Say?

2021 Iowa State pick: 10-2; - Runner Up in the BIG 12

Four-year analytic percentage on Iowa State = 78 percent

2021 Iow State Analytics –

Hour Glass National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 52nd – Outside our Realistic College Football Playoff bust line. Iowa State does not have the roster to get to the College Football Playoff. They are still a class or two in recruiting to jumping into that conversation.

National Coaching Rank for Matt Campbell on HG Scale: 13th (Matt Campbell 2021 coaching value set at (13) – Average coaching value for 2021 set at 7.1. – Campbell is considered above average on our metric, trending up.

ODE Analytics – NOTE: ODE is our offensive and defensive scoring efficiency ranking for each team. We use a two-year evaluation of each program.

Iowa State ranks 22nd in the country in our 2021 ODE evaluation. Offensively they have a ranking of 36th in the country and defensively 26th in the country.

Quarterback Play: Iowa State has the 12th - best quarterback situation in the country going into the season. Their value is set at (13.8). Our national average for average quarterback play is 9.10. Iowa State has above average quarterback play.

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Ranking the teams wide receiver play - and do they have quality, impact wide receivers. Iowa State ranks 17th in the country.

FINAL THOUGHTS:

All eyes will be on Ames, Iowa this year, as Iowa State is the playoff dark horse darling for 2021. A week two matchup with Iowa looms first, as Matt Campbell is currently 0-4 against their rival.

We talked about the meat of the schedule in late October and while this team should finish at 10 wins, there still is work to be done to reach the Playoff or be in that conversation.

Iowa State will have a great year and play in a nice bowl game, but it will not be a playoff game.

Projected Hour Glass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.