2024 Utah Projections on the HG

Mar 20

Mar 20 2024 Utah Projections on the HG

Jake Wimberly

Spencer Winans Contributing

What’s to like:

Utah comes into the Big 12 as one of the most talented teams in the conference. They lost Cam Rising in Week One last season and still managed to get 8 wins.

Coach Kyle Whittingham is among the top coaches in college football and has shown that he has no problem leading the Utes in a conference change as he did in 2011. That season Utah left the Mountain west to join the Pac-10, making it the Pac-12. That season the Utes won 7 regular season games and the Sun Bowl.

Cam Rising returns for his 7th season. Needless to say, he has plenty of experience under center and should transition seamlessly into the Big 12.

What’s not to like:

The Utes offense last season had to rely on the running backs. To top it off, leading rusher Ja’Quindon Jackson transferred to Arkansas.

While it had a lot to do with the injury of Cam Rising, no receiver had more than 593 yards last season. That will change some, but there is no clear target for Rising to rely on.

The Big 12 might be the most unpredictable conference in 2024. There are about 8 teams that it will be a coin flip on whether or not they will be good. Teams like Colorado, Iowa State, and Baylor could sit right around six wins and disrupt the Utes late in the year

What does the Hourglass say?

2024 Utah – Big 12 (9-3)

Four-year analytic percentage of Utah = 89 percent

2024 Utah Analytics

National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 34th - just outside the College Football Playoff bust territory.

National Coaching Ranking: Kyle Whittingham - 10th in the country, 1st in Big 12; 2024 coaching value= 15 (average 2023 Power 5 coaching value= 8.35) Kyle Whittingham has proved over about 2 decades at Utah that he is among the elite coaches in college football.

ODE Analytics for 2023 nationally:

Offensive Rank: 81st

Defensive Rank: 13th

Quarterback Play: Cam Rising - ranked 7th in the Power 4, 2nd in the Big 12; 2024 QB value=25.4. Well above the 2023 Power 4 average (14.78)

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Utah has a 0 on a scale of 1-5, with no one on their roster having more than 293 yards last season.

From Vegas:

Utah ATS in 2023: 6-6-1

Utah at home: 4-3-0

Utah on the road: 2-2-1

Utah at neutral site: 0-1-0

FINAL THOUGHTS:

Utah has plenty of reasons to be one of, if not the favorite in the Big 12 this season. They have a top QB in Cam Rising and the best coach in the conference. The defense should also be among the top in the Big 12 as well. But, the offensive struggles last season raise major concerns for us, and without any major recruiting success to mention in recent years, it’s only a matter of time before the Utes are passed in sheer talent. That being said, this could be the season for the Utes. The 3 losses that we have them down for could go either way, but, be aware bettors, there's a couple of close wins that could go the other way as well.

Expect the Utes to compete for a Big 12 title in 2024 and maybe even sneak in as a 9-12 at-large team.

2024 Schedule Analysis:

Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.