2024 Penn State Projections on the HG
Jake Wimberly
Ben Parker Contributing
What’s to like:
Penn State’s offense will look a little different, as they have hired a new offensive coordinator, but returning quarterback Drew Allar is expected to perform well this season. Allar threw for 2,631 yards last year and tied for conference leader in touchdowns with 25. Per the Hourglass, Allar ranks 5th nationally and 2nd in the conference.
Penn State consistently has 10-win seasons and will likely continue doing so.
What’s not to like:
While the Hourglass has Penn State winning 10 games, it will not be easy. Road games against West Virginia and USC, and facing projected conference champion Ohio State will be good games to gauge this strength of this team.
Defensive coordinator Manny Diaz departing is a major loss. There have also been a number of departures on defense. Defensive strength was crucial in the success of last year's team and there will be more pressure on the offense to perform.
What does the Hourglass say?
2024 Penn State – Big Ten (10-2)
Four-year analytic percentage of Penn State = 90 percent
2024 Penn State Analytics
National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 13th - inside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.
National Coaching Ranking: James Franklin - 5th in the country, 2nd in Big Ten; 2024 coaching value= 18 (average 2023 Power 5 coaching value= 8.35) James Franklin ranks above the national average.
ODE Analytics for 2023 nationally:
Offensive Rank: 27th
Defensive Rank: 4th
Quarterback Play: Drew Allar- ranked 5th in the Power 5, 13th in the Big Ten; 2024 QB value=26.6. Above the (Power 5 average- 14.78)
Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Penn State has a 3 on a scale of 1-5, skill talent is good.
From Vegas:
Penn State ATS in 2023: 9-4-0
Penn State at home: 5-2-0
Penn State on the road: 4-1-0
Penn State at neutral site: 0-1-0
FINAL THOUGHTS:
There is a lot to like about this Penn State team. Depth at every position, a coach that knows how to win, a seasoned returning quarterback, and a hunger for titles.
Penn State has been able to put together 5 10-win seasons over the last 8 years. While 10 wins is attainable this year, this team wants more. A 10-2 record just might be enough for them to contend for a Big Ten title and a shot at the College Football Playoff in 2024.
2024 Schedule Analysis:
Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.
