2024 Auburn Projections on the HG

Jake Wimberly

Ben Parker Contributing

What’s to like:

Auburn has put together a great recruiting class this year. Per the Hourglass, Auburn ranks 14th nationally in recruiting (three-year metric) and they have decent talent heading into this season.

Auburn has retained their quarterback and a few top players on offense and this off season, Freeze has made staff changes and brought in transfers to fill some gaps on both sides of the ball.

What’s not to like:

Year 1 under Hugh Freeze was not very good. Auburn is on a streak of 4 straight losing seasons and much needs to improve to overcome this.

Auburn is still in somewhat of a rebuilding process and are not at the championship caliber level yet.

Auburn had the worst passing yards per game ranking in the conference last year.

What does the Hourglass say?

2024 Auburn – SEC (9-3)

Four-year analytic percentage of Auburn = 92 percent

2024 Auburn Analytics

National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 14th - inside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.

National Coaching Ranking: Hugh Freeze - 15th in the country, 7th in SEC; 2024 coaching value= 13 (average 2023 Power 5 coaching value= 8.35) Hugh Freeze ranks above the national average.

ODE Analytics for 2023 nationally:

Offensive Rank: 76th

Defensive Rank: 23rd

Quarterback Play: Payton Thorne- ranked 45th in the Power 5, 11th in the SEC; 2024 QB value=9.7. Below the (Power 5 average- 14.78)

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Auburn has a 2 on a scale of 1-5, skill talent is lacking.

From Vegas:

Auburn ATS in 2023: 6-7-0

Auburn at home: 4-3-0

Auburn on the road: 2-3-0

Auburn at neutral site: 0-1-0

FINAL THOUGHTS:

Hugh Freeze’s first year on The Plains was quite disappointing. Is it time to run him out of Auburn? Not yet. Slight improvement can be expected this year. Coach Freeze has been putting in work over the off season retooling his staff and bringing in some legit recruits and transfers. Road games against Georgia, Missouri, Kentucky, and Alabama will prove difficult for the Tigers. A 9 win season for the first time in what feels like forever for Auburn fans is within reach. While Payton Thorne is likely to start at quarterback, Freeze has said that the competition for the spot is “wide open.” Auburn needs a strong leader on offense and there is a lot of doubt in Thorne’s ability to do that.

It does not look like a playoff berth this year is likely for Auburn. They would need a huge conference win to even be considered.

Auburn certainly has their work cut out for them to turn things around and get back to their winning ways. Hugh Freeze is determined to rebuild this program and so far is taking the right steps to do so.

2024 Schedule Analysis:

Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.