2021 Minnesota football projections on the HG

May 2

May 2 2021 Minnesota football projections on the HG

Jake Wimberly

What’s to like:

Momentum - let’s just throw out last year for the BIG 10. Minnesota played seven ball games and we will assume last year’s 3-4 record was a mulligan.

Prior to last year, the Gophers improved every year under PJ Fleck and beat Auburn in a big time bowl game. Fleck has improved the roster, bred new life into the program and returns our number one BIG 10 quarterback in Tanner Morgan.

Morgan will have a shot at the NFL next year and this offense should be clicking back on all cylinders in 2021.

What’s not to like:

Okay I said ignore 2020, but you have to be a little concerned with the defense. The defense improved every year under Fleck, but gave up 30 points per game a year ago.

The Gophers also need to find a few more pass catchers to take up the slack of Rashod Bateman heading off to the NFL.

What does the Hourglass Say?

2021 Minnesota pick: 10-2; 6-2 - Runner Up in the BIG 10

Four-year analytic percentage on Minnesota = 83 percent

2021 Minnesota Analytics –

Hour Glass National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 35th – Outside our Realistic College Football Playoff bust line. Minnesota does not have the roster to get to the College Football Playoff. They are still a class or two in recruiting to jumping into that conversation.

National Coaching Rank for PJ Fleck on HG Scale: 22nd (PJ Fleck 2021 coaching value set at (7.1) – Average coaching value for 2021 set at 7.1. – Fleck is considered average on our metric, but trending up.

ODE Analytics – NOTE: ODE is our offensive and defensive scoring efficiency ranking for each team. We use a two-year evaluation of each program.

Minnesota ranks 26th in the country in our 2021 ODE evaluation. Offensively they have a ranking of 32nd in the country and defensively 39th in the country.

Quarterback Play: Minnesota has the 5th - best quarterback situation in the country going into the season. Their value is set at (20.4). Our national average for average quarterback play is 9.10. Minnesota has elite quarterback play.

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Ranking the teams wide receiver play - and do they have quality, impact wide receivers. Minnesota ranks 55th in the country.

FINAL THOUGHTS:

Fleck has done a great job bringing Minnesota out of the ashes of the BIG 10. Now it’s time for he and their staff to continue to move the needle in recruiting and continue to build on their momentum.

The Gophers open up with Ohio State and while the Buckeyes will be a big favorite, this is a chance for Minnesota to show the world they belong in the BIG 10.

Regardless of what happens in game one, this should be another big year for Fleck and Minnesota.

Projected Hour Glass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.