Alabama, Ohio State punch tickets to the 2023 College Football Playoff - two new teams join the field

Jake Wimberly

The 2021 football season brought many a surprise, from Cincinnati punching the first G5 ticket to the playoff, Georgia winning their first championship since 1980 and so much more. We have seen massive coaching change, NIL explosion and the transfer portal.

So what happens in the 2022 season and who makes the College Football Playoff this year?

Two teams in Alabama and Ohio State are way ahead of the field and then there’s literally the field. Expect the Crimson Tide and Buckeyes to meet for another National Title, but who joins them at the party?

All of that and more as we go deeper into the Hourglass.

Alabama and Ohio State are in a class of their own in 2022:

Some years it just happens like this - where a team or two are way ahead of the field and 2022 is that year. Alabama and Ohio State are way ahead of everyone else - and if they can stay healthy, they are on a crash course to meet for a sixth time in the history of their two programs. Alabama holds a 5-1 advantage in the series.

At first glance, if we look at just talent alone, Alabama and Ohio State are not alone. Our three year talent metrics show several other teams that have risen to elite status in the talent portion of our algorithm.

1 Alabama 98.72

2 Georgia 98.21

3 Ohio State 97.18

4 Texas A&M 96.41

5 Clemson 94.62

Georgia has done a wonderful job and can pace Alabama player for player - evident of beating Alabama in this past year’s national title game. Texas A&M has loaded up as of late, like their most recent class that ranked “best class in the history of college football” and Clemson has been at an elite clip for a number of years.

The same can be said from the coaching aspect of these clubs. We know Nick Saban is the best coach in football but what about the field?

1 Alabama Nick Saban 36

2 Georgia Kirby Smart 35

3 Ohio State Ryan Day 32

4 USC Lincoln Riley 31

5 Clemson Dabo Swinney 28

Again, when you look at coaching, and I treat the head coach as the CEO of their business and their business is football. Everyone has coaching turnover on their staff, but how do they handle that turnover. Nick Saban never skips a beat - we will see what Dabo Swinney does this year.

Kirby Smart has risen to number two, Ryan Day is third and Lincoln Riley is fourth.

Nick Saban has used the transfer portal to his advantage, returns the Heisman Trophy winner and is loaded for Bear in 2022.

So no surprise the elites have great talent and great coaching. But you have to look at two main factors for Ohio State and Alabama this year.

The first is quarterback play. Bryce Young of Alabama and CJ Stroud are on another world compared to everyone else. Both quarterbacks combined for 94 total touchdowns a year ago and both are 1-2 in the early Heisman odds in Vegas.

The next highest is Caleb Williams at USC, but they are not ready yet roster wise to compete with the likes of Alabama.

My top five quarterbacks are as follows.

1 Alabama Bryce Young 45.8

2 Ohio State CJ Stroud 42.4

3 NC State Devin Leary 33.4

4 Tennessee Hendon Hooker 32.3

5 Wake Forest Sam Hartman 32.2

Ohio State’s CJ Stroud is the early favorite in Vegas to win the Heisman Trophy at +250.

After Young and Stroud - there are some really good signal callers, but the next best ones don’t have the roster support the first two do to make a deep run.

Plus - when we speak of Alabama and Ohio State - they just develop their talent at a different rate than anyone else. Alabama and Ohio State have put more players in the NFL over the last five years than anyone; Alabama has 53 and Ohio State 41, before this years 2022 NFL Draft.

So when you combine the coaching, talent and quarterback play, plus the moves to bolster rosters in the transfer portal - these two teams are light years ahead of the field in 2022.

Alabama is coming off a year living in the top five in offensive and defensive scoring efficiency and Ohio State had the top offensive efficiency team a year ago. The Buckeyes must improve defensively where they were in the mid 40’s and have the talent and appear to have the coaches in place to do so this year.

So who are the other two teams that will join Alabama and Ohio State in the playoff?

Meet the Baylor Bears:

Dave Aranda’s first year at Baylor was a rebuild of sorts right in the middle of the pandemic, as his team finished 2-7, but last year Baylor raced out to a 12-2 finish and a Sugar Bowl win over Ole Miss.

Year three should be an amazing year for Baylor who returns the top offensive line in the country, and seven starters back on both the offensive and defensive sides.

Aranda has risen up my coaching rankings, ranking 18th on my overall coaching rankings, well above the average ranking given out of 8.33 this year.

Dave Aranda returns 14 starters off last years Sugar Bowl Championship team.

The Bears were 30th in offensive scoring efficiency a year ago and 11th in defensive scoring efficiency. Expect that defense to play even better and the offense should be better under quarterback Gerry Bohanon who accounted for 27 total touchdowns a year ago.

The Bears are 42nd on my three year talent evaluation, but have moved the needle quickly under Aranda. They will be breaking in new key pieces at running back and wide receiver, but if they can get passed a week two matchup at BYU, this team should jell and make a deep run into November with trips to Oklahoma and Texas on the back end.

The Bears also get a BIG 12 that is in a state of flux so the defending champions are in a good position to make a run to the College Football Playoff.

Here comes Utah!

The College Football Playoff has not been kind to the PAC 12, as only Oregon has been able to punch a ticket to the biggest dance in college football and that was several years ago now.

In steps the Utah Utes in 2022, a team that returns eight offensive and five defensive starters from last years Rose Bowl Team.

Kyle Whittingham is my 13th best coach coming into 2022, and for good reason. What he has been able to do out west is one of the more underrated jobs in college football.

The Utes have the 29th best roster on my three year metric and have moved the needle in the talent department.

Quarterback Cameron Rising is my 20th best quarterback in the country and the Utes return a team that was 10th and 15th in offensive and defensive scoring efficiency.

This might be Kyle Whittingham’s best team yet at Utah in 2022

The Utes also play a schedule that sets up well for a deep run. If they can get a week one win on the road at Florida, look out! The Utes will be rolling in 2022 and likely headed to the College Football Playoff for the first time in school history.

Other Teams at Play and the mix:

What about Georgia, Clemson, Notre Dame, Michigan and others? There will be other teams with skin in the game this year, but if you look around college football there are teams with major disadvantages.

Georgia will not be as good defensively and when they take on Alabama in the SEC title game, they will not have the fire power to compete.

Clemson could make a deep run, but needs much better quarterback play and staff continuity.

Michigan will run into Ohio State and this year that will not be kind to them.

Notre Dame runs into Ohio State early and could recover late.

Oklahoma has to much of a rebuild to be taken serious in year one of Brent Vennables.

If Baylor and Utah falter, we could again be faced with a number of one loss teams vying for the last two spots.

But - in the end, Alabama will take on Ohio State and the Tide will win another National Title under Nick Saban - adding another layer to his legacy.

CFB Hourglass New Years Six Bowl Projections:

Note: all photos courtesy of 247sports.com

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