Projecting the 2023 College Football Playoff and a National Champion
Jake Wimberly
We are rolling towards summer and college football will be back before you know it. Earlier we went into our annual piece on the 2023 Hourglass, where we give you my power rankings for 2023, and a detailed breakdown of how I do things. You can read that piece here.
Today - I want to look to the end of the season, project my College Football Playoff and a National Champion.
Georgia is going to be favored and is favored currently the favorite to win the National Title across all sports books. Courtesy of Ameristar Casino in Vicksburg, MS - a Penn Property, here are the futures for the top teams in college football.
National Championship Futures in College Football - Ameristar Casino in Vicksburg, MS
While some things remain the same, things are changing this year, as the top three favorites will be breaking in new quarterbacks. Can someone from the PAC 12 punch a ticket this year, or is there a TCU in the 2023 field?
We take a look now as I dissect the field.
Tier 3 - Bronze Tier
Tier 3 teams have a lot of the ingrediencies that go into a playoff team, but things have to go right and they have more to navigate than tier two or one.
Below is a breakdown of the teams I feel are tier 3 and what they have to do to beat the field.
Texas -
Talent Rank: 5th
Coaching Rank: 31st
Quarterback Rank: 21st
ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): Above Average 20th percentile
Texas gets in the Playoff IF: Texas get’s in the playoff if they can find a running game to go with Quinn Ewers this year and they can avoid the hiccup loss.
Texas has a road game at Alabama in week two that could go a long way for the Longhorns. They also play the annual game against Oklahoma in October, but look down the road to games against Kansas State, at TCU and Texas Tech. Texas typically drops a few of these along the way. They have to break that trend to get to the BIG 12 Championship and need to be almost perfect.
Final Analysis: Texas could grab a big win against Alabama in week two, but likely drops two on the back end to finish 10-2. This team is still a year or two away.
Quinn Ewers looks to lead Texas to a trip to the BIG 12 Championship in 2023.
Florida State -
Talent Rank: 20th
Coaching Rank: 36th
Quarterback Rank: 8th
ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): Average 25th percentile
Florida State gets in the Playoff IF: They run the table and win the ACC Championship for the first time in almost 10 years. This is the best team Mike Norvell has had in Tallahassee, but they have a big week one game against LSU, travel to Clemson in the middle of the year and play a late season game at Pittsburgh.
The Noles should be in every game they play this year and favored in 10-12 games.
Final Analysis: I have Florida State winning the ACC this year, but a loss along the way; likely week one against LSU. Even at 11-1 and an ACC Championship, things need to go right for Florida State to get in the playoff. Likely New Years Six Day Bowl.
Utah -
Talent Rank: 31st
Coaching Rank: 12th
Quarterback Rank: 10th
ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): Average 25th percentile
Utah gets in the Playoff IF: They run the table in the PAC 12, something, the defending, back to back champions haven’t been able to do. This team plays great defense and can score the ball on most anyone. I had the Utes in the playoff last year, but a week one loss at Florida derailed that out the gate.
Utah hosts Florida to open the season, travels to Baylor, USC and hosts Oregon. Things have to go perfectly for the Utes to run the table and land the PAC 12 in the playoff.
Final Analysis: Utah will again be in the mix for a third straight PAC 12 title, but there are to many land minds along the way. Likely finish is a New Years Six Day game.
Washington -
Talent Rank: 34th
Coaching Rank: 29th
Quarterback Rank: 6th
ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): Outside Average 35th percentile
Washington gets in the Playoff IF: The Huskies took college football by storm last year, winning 11 games and Michael Penix Jr. returns as one of the top quarterbacks in all of college football. The Huskies boast two 1,000 yard receivers in Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan. They also added some pop in the running back room via the transfer portal.
This team averaged 40 points per game a year ago, but gave up 28 per game. They fill they have made the necessary adjustments to get that defensive number down to around 24 per game.
The Huskies get Oregon and Utah at home, but do have to travel to USC later in the year. If the Huskies can survive an early trip to Michigan State in week three, they could be in line for a special year.
Final Analysis: Quarterback play is a premium out west this year and Washington has all the makings of a rock solid offense again in 2023. Their schedule lines up perfectly to where if they can stay healthy, they could run the table. I have Washington winning the PAC 12 - and making a run to the playoff.
Michael Penix Jr. will be a front runner for the Heisman Trophy in 2023.
Tier 2 - Silver Tier
Tier 2 teams have a lot of the ingrediencies that go into a playoff team, but may still be a player or two away from being in the elite category. They typically have recruited at a high rate, but have some glaring flaws that will derail them in a season.
Below is a breakdown of the teams I feel are tier 2 and what they have to do to beat the field.
LSU -
Talent Rank: 4th
Coaching Rank: 4th
Quarterback Rank: 11th
ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency):On the number 20th percentile
LSU gets in the Playoff IF: Brian Kelly has turned LSU around and in a hurry. The Tigers are my pick to win the SEC West again in 2023, but navigating the rugged SEC is always tough. The Tigers return arguably the best quarterback in the SEC in Jayden Daniels, have a ton of skill talent, but need to button up on the defensive side just a bit.
Also - when in the SEC, all roads lead to Georgia. The Tigers have a huge week one game against Florida State, travel to Miss. State, Ole Miss and Alabama. LSU will be in the mix all the way through November, but they still are not good enough to beat Georgia.
Final Analysis: LSU will be in the picture all season long and they are my pick to win the SEC West. However, they will need to be perfect along the way and some help by being the runner up in the SEC. LSU likely heads to a New Years Six Day game.
Clemson -
Talent Rank: 10th
Coaching Rank: 8th
Quarterback Rank: 44th
ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): Outside Average 38th percentile
Clemson gets in the Playoff IF: Cade Klubnik lights a fire under this Clemson offense. Clemson will beat most teams on their schedule due to better talent, but if Clemson is getting back to the playoff, they have to play better offensively. The Tigers could find themselves in fights against Florida State, at Syracuse, Notre Dame, at Miami and North Carolina if this offense isn’t turned around this year.
Final Analysis: Clemson still has a fantastic roster, but there are issues on this offense. I think those issues will continue to show up in the biggest moments. Clemson should win double digit games, but they will not win the conference this year and miss the playoff.
USC -
Talent Rank: 18th
Coaching Rank: 3rd
Quarterback Rank: 1st
ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): Outside Average 51st percentile
USC gets in the Playoff IF: They play a little defense. Eight times last year the Trojans gave up 25 points or more and while they can score it with the best of em, they have to slow some people down.
Even averaging 41.1 points per game, the Trojans were still in four - one possession ball games that they WON. The Trojans go to Notre Dame and then get Utah on back to back weeks, then after a break get Washington, at Oregon and UCLA in a row - all within a six week back end stretch. If this defense isn’t any better, they could get dinged a few times.
Final Analysis: Caleb Williams is the best player in football and USC will put on a show, but they have a long way to go defensively to compete for a National Title with the rest of the field. If they can improve their defensive points per game by a touchdown, which is a lot, the conversation changes. USC likely ends up in a New Years Six game again.
Notre Dame -
Talent Rank: 9th
Coaching Rank: 30th
Quarterback Rank: 3rd
ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): Outside Average 33rd percentile
Notre Dame gets in the Playoff IF: Sam Hartman is everything he is advertised. The Irish averaged 32 points per game a year ago, and Hartman is the type of quarterback, who can add more to that offense. Defensively the Irish are close, giving up only 21 to Ohio State last year, and falling off a cliff against USC.
The Irish Get two of the big three at home this year with Ohio State and USC, and travel to Clemson late.
If the Irish can get to double digit wins, particularly 11, they are in the playoff based on their history.
Final Analysis: Sam Hartman is the type of quarterback that can take a really good team to elite. The Irish don’t have the horses to run with the likes of Georgia, but Hartman gives them a shot each week. The Irish likely go 11-1 and that’s good enough for them to get into the playoff.
Jayden Daniels looks to lead LSU back to the SEC Championship in 2023.
Tier 1 - Gold Tier
Tier one teams have all the ingrediencies needed to win a National Title, but they don’t always pull that off. This is the elite class of college football.
Below is a breakdown of the teams I feel are tier 1 and what they have to do to beat the field.
Alabama -
Talent Rank: 1st
Coaching Rank: 2nd
Quarterback Rank: 37th
ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): Inside the number - 10 percentile
Alabama gets in the Playoff IF: They can avoid a defensive catastrophe like Tennessee and LSU last year and if they find a quarterback. Alabama for the first time in years, looks to NOT have elite quarterback play, evident of Notre Dame transfer quarterback Tyler Buchner. The Tide also lack that big play threat to stretch the defense.
This will be a more run oriented club, but they face a daunting task as Texas comes calling in week 2, they go to Texas A&M, and Auburn and have Tennessee and LSU on ends of a bye week.
If the offense sputters this year, there is no Bryce Young to bail them out on this roster. .
Final Analysis: Alabama is still one of the elite forces in college football; but this year, unless someone comes from within that locker room to provide elite quarterback play, the Tide finishes second in the west for the second straight year and in a New Years Six game again.
Ohio State -
Talent Rank: 3rd
Coaching Rank: 3rd
Quarterback Rank: 39th
ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): On the Average 21st percentile
Ohio State gets in the Playoff IF: Much like Alabama, find elite quarterback play. The Buckeyes feel good about the guys on campus, and Ohio State does have the wide receivers to go get balls.
The Buckeyes will again be explosive, but they must get the quarterback spot right and continue to play better defense. They played much better, until the end of the year where they gave up 30, 45 and 42 points to end the year. They also have to show a more physical presence in the trenches against better teams.
The Buckeyes travel to Notre Dame, Wisconsin and Michigan and host Penn State.
We saw them get in with a loss last year, but this year may be different.
Final Analysis: This is still a double digit win team that will challenge for the BIG 10 title, but they will need to be tougher to not drop a third straight to Michigan. The Buckeyes likely drop a couple this year and settle for a New Years Six Game.
Michigan -
Talent Rank: 12th
Coaching Rank: 6th
Quarterback Rank: 16th
ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): Inside Average 10th percentile
Michigan gets in the Playoff IF: They keep doing what they have done the last two years. The Wolverines have mirrored themselves as close to Georgia as anyone. JJ McCarthy is on of the rising stars in college football and Blake Corrum is one of the best backs in football.
The Wolverines torched most teams last year by an average of 41-16 and this year should be no different.
Michigan goes to Michigan State, Penn State and hosts Ohio State. The Wolverines are eyeing a third straight trip to the College Football Playoff.
Final Analysis: This could be Harbaugh’s best team yet and that’s saying something. Michigan should again run the table and this time make the National Championship game.
Georgia -
Talent Rank: 2nd
Coaching Rank: 1st
Quarterback Rank: 38th
ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): Inside Average 10th percentile
Georiga gets in the Playoff IF: They don’t fall asleep at the wheel. Kirby Smart has done a fantastic job stocking this roster with top tier talent and they are the one team that can afford to miss at quarterback and play just average.
The Dogs beat you physically and out athlete you everywhere. They will lean on defense and the running game until the quarterback situation works itself out.
Georgia plays one of the easiest schedules in the Power Five, with a road trip to rebuilding Auburn, neutral site game against Florida and at Tennessee. The Dogs should be back in the SEC Title game once again.
Final Analysis: Georgia has all the ingrediencies for another College Football Playoff run and if they get just average play, should be back in the National Championship once again.
Final Analysis:
Georgia is the odds on favorite and should be for a three-peat. But with the turnover at the biggest of places at quarterback it is going to ding some teams.
Conversely, we see upgrades and great play at other places like Notre Dame, Washington and others.
Schedules matter; who you play, where you play and who is before and after an opponent.
This year I like the following to make the College Football Playoff:
Georgia out of the SEC as the SEC Champion
Michigan out of the BIG 10 as the BIG 10 Champiion
Washington out of the PAC 12 as the PAC 12 Champion
Notre Dame will be good enough and do enough to get in.
I like a Georgia versus Michigan Championship, with The Michigan Wolverines defeating the Georgia Bulldogs.
They have a better quarterback this year and they are being built in an image that can lock horns with Georgia’s physicality.
Some of these other teams in all these tiers could make it, as it’s paper thin between some of them, but give me Michigan and Hail to the Victor in 2023!
Projected New Year’s Six Games and College Football Playoff. 2023-24
Editors note: all photos courtesy of 247sports.com
