2022 Tennessee football projections on the HG

Jun 12

Jun 12 2022 Tennessee football projections on the HG

Jake Wimberly

What’s to like:

Trajectory of the program. Tennessee got off to a slow start under Josh Heupel in 2021, but found Hendon Hooker at quarterback and it’s been less Rocky days on Rocky Top lately.

The Vols averaged just under 40 points per game a year ago and much of that talent returns in 2022. The Vols are also recruiting at a higher level under Heupel and look like they are serious about getting back into the college football business.

On the field the Vols also return a ground game that averaged right at 4.9 yards per carry and with Hooker back for another year, this offense could be one of the better ones in the country.

What’s not to like:

Defense as this team was 44th in 2021 in defensive scoring efficiency. The Vols also gave up 29.1 points per game and some nights looked totally out of sink. The Vols gave up over 40 percent on third downs a year ago and once teams were in the red zone it was almost instant. Teams converted points 92 percent of the time on Tennessee once in the alarm zone of the field.

For Tennessee to take the next step, they must improve every facet of this side of the ball and bring that points per game average down to around 23.5.

What does the Hourglass Say?

2022 Tennessee 10-2; 6-2 - Second in the SEC East

Four-year analytic percentage on Tennessee = 75 percent

2021 Tennessee Analytics –

Hour Glass National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): Tennessee - 13th – Inside our Realistic College Football Playoff bust line. Tennessee has enough talent to reach the College Football Playoff and challenge for a championship based on their talent metric.

National Coaching Ranking - Josh Heupel on HG Scale: 27th in the country ( Josh Heupel 2022 coaching value set at (6) – Average coaching value for 2022 set at 8.23 – Heupel is just under the average value in the country for 2022.

ODE Analytics – NOTE: ODE is our offensive and defensive scoring efficiency ranking for each team. We use a two-year evaluation of each program.

Tennessee ranks 37th in the country in our 2022 ODE evaluation.

Quarterback Play: Tennessee has the 4th best quarterback situation in the country going into the season. Their value is set at (32.3). Our national average for average quarterback play is 14.59. Tennessee quarterback play is set above average on our national scale.

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Ranking the teams wide receiver play - and do they have quality, impact wide receivers. Tennessee ranks 29th in the country.

From Vegas:

Tennessee ATS in 2021: 5-8

Tennessee at home: 3-5

Tennessee as a road team: 2-2

Tennessee on a neutral site: 0-1

Tennessee in games played with totals (over/under): 10-3 as they hit the over in 76.9 percent of their games.

FINAL THOUGHTS:

This year’s version of Tennessee football should be pretty darn good. This team isn’t ready to knock off Georgia in the SEC East, but so far Heupel is doing all the right things to get Tennessee in a stable place in the SEC East.

This team should win 9-10 ball games and play in a great post season location and with a little help, knock off a heavy hitter along the way.