2023 Tennessee Football Projections on the HG
Jake Wimberly
Emma Young Contributing -
What’s to like:
After a rocky 2021 season with a new coach, the Vols turned it around in 2022. Tennessee is still looking to move in that direction under Josh Heupel. Tennessee has moved to 12th in the nation in recruiting rankings with Heupel. This puts them above the NCC Contender Line. He is in the top 5 ranks of coaching in the SEC and top 10 in the nation.
Simply put - Heupel is doing everything the right way in Knoxville.
Last season, the Vols averaged 46 points per game, while holding their opponents to just over 22 points per game. The Vols had an offense that averaged 7.2 yards per play. With a good recruiting and talent rating, Tennessee should be able to return a quality offense.
The Vols were able to step up their defense last season and decrease their opponents points per game. They allowed 29.1 points per game in the 2021 season and only 22 per game in the 2022 season.
What’s not to like:
After backing up Hendon Hooker last season and getting a few starts after Hooker’s injury, Joe Milton III is back for his last season of NCAA eligibility.
For JM3, it’s about showing he can finish a season. Milton couldn’t get it done at Michigan and needs to show that big play capability for an entire year. The Vols also need to show they can replace the big play threats lost to the NFL this past year.
Tennessee is close, but still a ways off from pacing Georgia in the SEC East.
What does the Hourglass say?
10-2, Second in SEC East
Four-year analytic percentage on Tennessee = 85 percent correct
2023 Tennessee Analytics-
Hourglass National Recruiting Ranking: The recruiting ranking for Tennessee is 12th in the nation for the 2023 season, which puts them above the Realistic NCC Contender Line. Tennessee has the talent to win the National Championship.
National Coaching Ranking: Josh Heupel- ranked 10th in the country (value set at 17). The average stamp for coaches in the Power 5 is 9.01 in 2023. Heupel is well above average in the country.
ODE Analytics: Fourth in offensive scoring efficiency, 40th in defensive scoring efficiency -
Tennessee has the offensive firepower to compete and must continue to improve defensively.
Quarterback Play: Going into the 2023 season, Tennessee’s quarterback situation is ranked 57th in the Power 5. Their value is set at 7.2, which is below the average value for P5 QB’s- 14.52. Keep in mind, we only have a small sample size of Milton. Expect this number to move up if he stays healthy.
Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Wide receiver room ranking at 15th nationally.
From Vegas:
Tennessee ATS in 2022: 10-3-0
Tennessee at home: 6-1-0
Tennessee as a road team: 3-2-0
Tennessee on a neutral site: 1-0-0
Tennessee in games played with totals (over/under): 7-6-0
FINAL THOUGHTS
Tennessee has moved fast under Josh Heupel and made waves in 2022. This year it’s about keeping that pace from a year ago and showing they are not a one year wonder. Tennessee has all the makings of a team that can at least finish second in the East behind Georgia and punch possibly a New Year’s Day Six bowl.
With a little luck, they could be hosting Georgia in November, undefeated and playing for the East.
2023 Schedule Analysis:
Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.
