2023 USC Football Projections on the HG

Jun 11

Jun 11 2023 USC Football Projections on the HG

Jake Wimberly

Emma Young Contributing -

What’s to like:

Lincoln Riley has completely turned around the football program for USC since his debut in the 2022 season. The 2021 season the Trojans finished with a record of 3-6. Upon Riley taking over the program, the Trojans finished with a record of 11-3. The trajectory of the program is upward.

Caleb Williams’ return is a huge positive for the Trojans. He is the number 1 QB in the country and the projected first pick of the NFL Draft. The combination of Williams and Riley brought great success for USC last season. If the Trojans can return their 41 points per game with an average of 7.2 yards per play, they will be able to recreate that success.

This team will again be arguably the most explosive team in college football.

What’s not to like:

Defense- Last season, the Trojans allowed opponents almost 30 points per game. They were ranked 82nd in defensive scoring efficiency.

They always say offense wins games, but defense wins championships. The Trojans must improve their defense if they want to take their game to the next level.

This team also showed it lacked toughness at times, particularly in the trenches. That has to change if they are going to be a formidable national player.

What does the Hourglass say?

10-2, First in Pac-12 South, Runner-up of Pac-12 Championship

Four-year analytic percentage on USC = 81 percent.

2023 USC Analytics-

Hourglass National Recruiting Ranking: Ranked 18th in the nation, above the playoff bust line. The Trojans are right on the cut line for elite talent.

National Coaching Ranking: Lincoln Riley- value of 28, 1st in Pac-12 and 3rd in the nation in coaches ranking, which is well above the average for power 5 coaching (9.01). Lincoln Riley is considered an elite coach in Power Five.

ODE Analytics: 3rd in the country in offensive scoring efficiency and 82nd in the country defensively. The Trojans have worlds to jump through to get to an elite defense, which will dictate how high they climb in 2023.

Quarterback Play: Caleb Williams- value of 38, ranked first in the Pac-12 and in the nation, his value is way above the average value for Power 5 QBs (14.52) - Williams is the best quarterback in the country.

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: 4th in the country.

From Vegas:

USC ATS in 2022: 8-6-0

USC at home: 5-2-0

USC as a road team: 3-2-0

USC on a neutral site: 0-2-0

USC in games played with totals (over/under): 11-3-0

FINAL THOUGHTS

USC is back in the game with Riley at the helm. Offensively this team can be a thing of beauty. Defensively this is where the rubber meets the road for this club. They have a mountain to climb to really be a player nationally. This team right now resembles some of Riley’s Oklahoma teams - which couldn’t stop anyone either defensively.

This is a New Years Six team at worst and with some help defensively, they could find themselves in the Playoff.

2023 Schedule Analysis:

Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.