2024 Alabama Football Projections on the HG

Feb 28

Feb 28 2024 Alabama Football Projections on the HG

Jake Wimberly

Ben Parker Contributing

What’s to like:

Alabama has a winning tradition.

Jalen Milroe has improved exponentially. Going into the 2023 season, Milroe was ranked 37th in the Power 5, he is now 9th per CFB Hourglass.

Although Alabama has lost some top talent to the transfer portal, they still rank just above Texas and Georgia in recruiting.

The Tide is ranked fifth in the HG Power 5 power rankings. Kalen Deboer is one of the best football coaches in the country, ranking at 4th in the 2024 HG coaching metrics. Deboer was also able to put Washington in the running for a national championship in 2023.

What’s not to like:

Nick Saban’s retirement will undoubtedly affect the program. Saban set the standard of excellence and crafted a winning formula that awarded them 6 national titles in his tenure. While Kalen Deboer brings an impressive resume it is still too early to tell how he will fare against the giants of the SEC.

Following Saban’s retirement, many key players hit the transfer portal. Defensive back Caleb Downs and receiver Isaiah Bond among the most notable transfers.

What does the Hourglass say?

2024 Alabama - SEC (8-4)

Four-year analytic percentage of Alabama = 88 percent

2024 Alabama Analytics

National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 1st - inside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.

National Coaching Ranking: Kalen Deboer - 4th in the country, 2nd in the SEC;

2024 coaching value= 19 (average 2023 Power 5 coaching value= 8.35) Deboer is well above the national average and is coming off a great season at Washington.

ODE Analytics for 2023 nationally:

Offensive Rank: 18th

Defensive Rank: 9th

Note: Alabama has totally retooled their coaching staff and personnel.

Quarterback Play: Jalen Milroe- ranked 9th in the Power 5; 2024 QB value=23.8. Above the (Power 5 average- 14.78)

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Alabama has a 2.5 on a scale of 1-5, meaning skill talent is marginal.

From Vegas:

Alabama ATS in 2023: 9-5-0

Alabama at home: 5-2-0

Alabama on the road: 3-2-0

Alabama at neutral site: 1-1-0

FINAL THOUGHTS:

There is much doubt surrounding the future of Alabama football. With Nick Saban out, it is easy to write them off this year. Alabama has the player and coaching talent to put up a solid effort this year and possibly sneak their way into the playoffs. Road games against LSU, Tennessee, and Oklahoma, as well as facing Georgia in the regular season for the first time since 2020, will prove difficult. It’s a new era of Crimson Tide football and this year will test if the dynasty built over the last decade can remain.

2024 Schedule Analysis:

Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.