2023 Alabama Football Projections on the HG

Jake Wimberly

Emma Young Contributing

What’s to like:

History - the program and the status quo - The Tide is ranked second in the HG Power 5 power rankings, while Nick Saban is still one of the best football coaches in the country, checking in at 2nd in the 2023 HG coaching metrics.

Alabama is a consistent powerhouse in top of the power rankings. They are a household name in college football. They are at the top of the recruiting game and are in the top three offenses and defenses. While much of the offseason buzz has been slanted negatively for Alabama, this is still a viable contender in the SEC and nationally.

What’s not to like:

The ole saying, when you have two qb’s you don’t have none - well Alabama has five so what is that? Alabama has to find a viable option fast at quarterback and the Tide needs to identify a big play wide receiver.

Alabama also has to clean up the penalty game from a year ago - as this was one of Nick Saban’s most undisciplined teams ever. Texas comes calling in week 2 and Alabama has to be sharp out the gate early.

What does the Hourglass say?

2023 Alabama 10-2 – Second in SEC West

Four-year analytic percentage of Alabama = 88 percent

2022 Alabama Analytics

National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 1st - inside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.

National Coaching Ranking: Nick Saban- 2nd in the country; 2023 coaching value= 29 (average 2023 Power 5 coaching value= 9.01) Saban is well above the average and one of the greatest college football coaches in history.

ODE Analytics: Alabama’s offensive-defensive scoring efficiency is ranked 7th in the nation.

Quarterback Play: Jalen Milroe- ranked 37th in the Power 5; 2023 QB value= 10. Below the (Power 5 average- 14.52)

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Rank- 14th

From Vegas:

Alabama ATS in 2022: 6-6-1

Alabama at home: 4-2-1

Alabama on the road: 1-4-0

Alabama at neutral site: 1-0-0

FINAL THOUGHTS:

Alabama is still one of the premiere programs in all of college football and has the talent to beat anyone on a given day. Alabama has to find the right guy at quarterback to replace Bryce Young and they have to find a big play guy or even two. Alabama has key games against Texas, LSU and Tennessee all at home this year and must travel to Texas A&M and Auburn.

This is for sure a New Year’s Six day team - and with the right quarterback, maybe a College Football Playoff Team.

2023 Schedule Analysis:

Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.