2024 Texas Football Projections on the HG

Feb 28

Feb 28 2024 Texas Football Projections on the HG

Jake Wimberly

Spencer Winans Contributing

What’s to like:

The Longhorns are BACK! Coming off their first ever playoff appearance this winter, Texas is gaining momentum at just the right time coming into the SEC.

Texas has one of best QBs in all of college football with Quinn Ewers returning for one more year.

Coach Steve Sarkisian has returned despite rumors of him replacing Nick Saban after the legend retired.

Of the top teams in the SEC, like Ole Miss, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and Oklahoma, Texas has one the easiest schedules.

The Longhorns hit the portal hard, signing 8 transfers and ranking higher than Alabama and Georgia.

What’s not to like:

Will the Longhorns play in the Big 12 translate to the SEC? Washington was the toughest opponent that the Longhorns faced last season, and, while they did give the Huskies a good game, they looked a bit slow out the gate.

The Longhorns have become known for their inconsistency in the past two decades or so. Will they be able to maintain their upward trajectory of the last 2 or 3 years?

What does the Hourglass say?

2024 Texas – SEC (12-0)

Four-year analytic percentage of Texas = 80 percent

2024 Texas Analytics

National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 4th - inside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.

National Coaching Ranking: Steve Sarkisian- T-7th in the country, T-4th in the SEC;

2024 coaching value= 17 (average 2023 Power 4 coaching value= 8.35)

Steve Sarkisian has become one of the most elite coaches in college football in his time at Texas.

ODE Analytics for 2023:

Offensive Rank: 17th

Defensive Rank: 8th

Quarterback Play: Quinn- ranked 16th in the Power 4, 4th in the SEC; 2024 QB value= 21.5 (Power 4 average- 14.78)

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Texas has an IBCM of 5. This is good for the best in the conference.

From Vegas:

Texas ATS in 2023: 7-6-1

Texas at home: 3-2-1

Texas on the road: 3-2

Texas at neutral site: 1-2

FINAL THOUGHTS:

After a promising 2024, Texas is primed for a title run. With the HG projection of 12-0, the Longhorns would be a lock for the CFP for another year, regardless of who they meet in the SEC Championship. The only question that Texas hasn’t answered yet is, “Can they break through and win a title?” They have the talent. They have the coaching. Will they get a championship?

2024 Schedule Analysis:

Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.