2025 Texas Predictions on the HG

Apr 21

Apr 21 2025 Texas Predictions on the HG

Jake Wimberly

Ross Gaskin Contributing:

What’s to like:

The Texas Longhorns are coming off one of their best seasons ever, and head coach Steve Sarkisian has these Longhorns rolling. However, the most exciting part for these 2025 Longhorns is the start of the Arch Manning era down in Texas. Manning, in the small sample size, has looked great.

Arch Manning appeared in 10 games, and started 2 of those games last season (winning both). Manning threw for 939 yards, 9 TDs, and 2 INTs while adding 108 more yards and 4 TDs on the ground. A lot of stars are returning to the team, and Texas looks poised to have a dominant run in the 2025 College Football Season.

What’s not to like:

While Arch Manning becoming the starter next season is very exciting, there is still potential for some unforeseen hiccups. Quin Ewers had a great tenure at Texas, and no QB transition is perfectly seamless. So, with Quin Ewers headed to the NFL, expect for some mistakes to be made, but nothing the Longhorns can’t handle.

The Longhorns will also be missing other massive pieces on that offense this season. Star wide receivers Isaiah Bond and Matthew Golden will be headed to the upcoming NFL draft along with dominant OT Kelvin Banks Jr.

What does the Hourglass say?

Texas- SEC (12-0)

Power ranking 138.84. 12th toughest schedule in the SEC.

2025 Texas Analytics

National recruiting rating (three year metric): #3- inside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.

National Coaching Ranking:

Steve Sarkisian- 3rd in Power 5 and 2nd in the SEC.

2024 coaching value= 21 (average 2025 Power 5 coaching value=9.3) Steve Sarkisian ranks as one of the top coaches in college football.

ODE analytics 2024 Nationally:

Offensive Ranking: 15th

Defensive Ranking: 1st

Quarterback Play: Manning- ranked 14th in the Power 4, 4th in the SEC; 2024 QB value= 18.5 (Power 4 average- 14.41)

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Texas has an Impact Ball Catcher Metric of 4. This puts the Longhorn at the highest level of the SEC in this metric.

From Vegas:

Texas ATS in 2024: 8-8

Texas at home: 5-3

Texas on the road: 2-2

Texas neutral site: 1-3

Final Thoughts:

Expect for Texas to be even more dominant this year than the last. Steve Sarkisian has these Longhorns looking fantastic, and the next great generation of Manning QBs is ready to throw the ball all over the field.

Texas has the fire power and the determination that could get them to the top of the mountain. There is a stampede of Longhorns coming, and they will trample anyone who gets in their way.

2025 Schedule analysis:

Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.