2024 Mississippi State Football Projections on the HG

Jake Wimberly

Brook Sperandeo Contributing

What’s to like:

Jeff Lebby has a simple but complex job - rebuild Mississippi State. The Dogs lacked serious punch on offense a year ago and lacked playmakers on defense. The Dogs jumped into the transfer portal and snagged WR Kevin Coleman as well as big play wide out Kelly Akharaiyi and OT Jacoby Jackson. Quarterback Blake Shapen looks to be QB1 as he transitions from Baylor and the Dogs have a lot of young skill talent they picked up in the 2024 class.

What’s not to like:

The Dogs ranked 108th offensively and 32nd defensively last year which is awful by SEC standards or any standards. . There is work to be done on both sides of the ball and their schedule is one of the tougher ones in the league.

What does the Hourglass say?

2024 Mississippi State – SEC (6-6)

  Four-year analytic percentage of Mississippi State =  88 percent

2024 Mississippi State Analytics

National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 24th - inside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.

National Coaching Ranking: Jeff Lebby - 53rd in the country, 12th in the SEC;

2024 coaching value= 3 (average 2023 Power 5 coaching value= 8.35)  Jeff Lebby ranks at an average level and is considered a good coach. 

ODE Analytics for 2023 nationally: 

Offensive Rank: 108th

Defensive Rank: 39th

Quarterback Play: Blake Shapen - ranked 32nd in the Power 5, 8th in the SEC; 2024 QB value= 13.2 Below the (Power 5 average- 14.78)

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Mississippi State has a 2 on a scale of 1-5, skill talent is lacking.

From Vegas:

Mississippi State ATS in 2023: 3-8-1

Mississippi State at home: 2-5-1

Mississippi State on the road: 1-3-0

Mississippi State at neutral site: 0-0-0

FINAL THOUGHTS:

Mississippi State is coming off of a regular season. This year as the transfer portal has been jumping for State will these players be what they have been looking for? Will Blake Shapen be able to make long throws and convert to first downs. How will Jeff Lebby apply his mastermind skills to the offense? 

Times are changing at Mississippi State, will they be able to produce the results they need to make the playoffs? 

2024 Schedule Analysis:

Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.

Note: All photos courtesy of 247sports.com