2025 Miss. State Predictions on the HG
Jake Wimberly
Ross Gaskin Contributing:
What’s to like:
Jeff Lebby is starting his second year as the head coach, and he has had time to establish a culture and has been able to build the team he needs to compliment his coaching style. The quarterback room is also looking great with Blake Shapen, who missed most of last season due to injury, coming back healthier and more familiar with the Lebby offense.
The Dogs have also acquired a young hot shot QB transfer from Florida State in Luke Kromenhoek. Kromenhoek has yet to prove himself at the collegiate level, but his youth and tremendous athletic ability gives hope to the Bulldog offense. Mississippi State also added great talent to the offense and defense through the transfer portal.
What’s not to like:
Mississippi State will be without some key contributors this season who either transferred or graduated/went to the NFL. For starters, the spearhead and leader of that Bulldog defense, Stone Blanton, has declared for the NFL draft after a great season.
On the other side of the ball, promising QB Michael Van Buren, WR Kevin Coleman, and WR Mario Craver all transferred to new teams (LSU, Missouri, and Texas A&M). The Dogs also had the 78th ranked offense and the 125th ranked defense this past season.
What does the Hourglass say?
Mississippi State- SEC (4-8)
Power ranking- 90.64. 5th toughest schedule in SEC.
2025 Mississippi State analytics
National recruiting rating (three year metric): #22- inside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.
National Coaching Ranking: Jeff Lebby- 62nd in Power 5 and 13th in the SEC.
2024 coaching value= 3 (average 2025 Power 5 coaching value=9.3) Jeff Lebby ranks at an average level and is considered a good coach.
ODE analytics 2024 Nationally:
Offensive Ranking: 57th
Defensive Ranking: 110th
Quarterback Play: Shapen- ranked 49th in the Power 4, 14th in the SEC; 2024 QB value= 10.5 (Power 4 average- 14.41)
Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Mississippi State has an Impact Ball Catcher Metric of 2. This puts the Bulldogs at the lower level of the SEC in this metric.
From Vegas:
Mississippi State ATS in 2024: 7-5
Mississippi State at home: 3-4
Mississippi State on the road: 4-1
Mississippi State neutral site: 0-0
Final Thoughts:
Mississippi State’s record last season did not tell the entire story. The predicted record for this season, based strictly on the current numbers, still does not tell the entire story. There is a storm brewing in Starkville! This team’s potential is limitless. Give Lebby time, but do not be shocked if the Bulldogs exceed expectations this season and for seasons to come.
2025 Schedule analysis:
Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.
Editors Note: All photos courtesy of 247sports.com
