Projecting the 2024 National Championship Contenders and Naming a Champion

Jake Wimberly

College football in 2024 has changed and changed forever. From NIL, the transfer portal, roster churn, conference realignment and an expanded College Football Playoff; long gone are the days of the BCS and the old college football that we knew.

It’s a new era in college football and 2024 looks to be one of new brands, mixed with some blue bloods – lots of drama on and off the field and, oh yea – an expanded playoff.

Today I want to release my tiers for 2024 as they pertain to the National Championship and I will release my national champion as I do every year – this time, about five weeks earlier than last year.

Last year in April I posted on this exact website and my radio show in Jackson, MS on ESPN radio that the Michigan Wolverines would be your 2023 National Champion and I never backed off that.

Today I have your 2024 champion in hand and I will again make that play at Ameristar Casino in Vicksburg and this one is even more of a lock than Michigan was last year.

I will release my playoff bracket in another article, but today, let’s examine the tiers of contenders for 2024 and a champion.

What does Vegas Say?

Georgia is going to be favored and is favored currently to win the National Title yet again across all sports books. Courtesy of Ameristar Casino in Vicksburg, MS - a Penn Property, these are the futures for the top teams in college football.

Let’s get to it and dissect the field.

Tier 3 - Bronze Tier

Tier 3 teams have a lot of the ingrediencies that go into a playoff team, but things have to go right and they have more to navigate than tier two or one. These teams will likely be round one playoff teams, be it host or travel teams if they get into the playoff.

Below is a breakdown of the teams I feel are tier 3 and what they have to do to beat the field.

Alabama -

Talent Rank: 2nd

Coaching Rank: 4th

Quarterback Rank: 9th

ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): Above Average 20th percentile

Alabama gets in the Playoff IF: IF everything goes right in a total transformation of Alabama football. Kalen DeBoer takes over for legend Nick Saban and it is truly a new day in Alabama football.

From Eli Gold gone from the press box, to a new staff, players and more – Alabama is in a total transformation. There is still lots of talent and DeBoer has shown he can coach anywhere he goes. If Jalen Milroe can make the next step in his game as a passer, this could be fun in Tuscaloosa.

The Tide have key roads games at Tennessee, Oklahoma and LSU and host Georgia. There is no room for error for DeBoer in year one of a loaded SEC.

Also, Alabama must find depth at key positions. The Tide has had major transfer portal attrition the last two years.

Final Analysis: Alabama faces four crucial road games, plus an early trip to Wisconsin in September. This is a lot for a totally new team to overcome. The Tide will likely drop two or three heart breakers and may miss the College Football Playoff – if they get in, they will have to battle from round one on. This team is not a true National Contender this year in my estimation.

Clemson -

Talent Rank: 23rd

Coaching Rank: 14th

Quarterback Rank: 29th

ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): Average 30th percentile

Clemson gets in the Playoff IF: They find offense. The Tigers had the 69th best efficient offense a year ago and things have just been bleak on the offensive side of the ball since Tony Elliott left for Virginia.

Musical chairs over the last few years at quarterback have not served the Tigers well and still the Tigers just look lost on offense on a lot of Saturdays. The Tigers are almost 14 points off their pace per game when they were running through the College Football Playoff.

Final Analysis: Dabo Swinney has stayed true to his beliefs and not worked the transfer portal. This may end up being a detriment to the program, but only time will tell. The Tigers are a far cry from the dominate force they once were in the ACC. If the offense sputters, they will be looking at another 9-3 season and miss the playoffs again.

Penn State -

Talent Rank: 13th

Coaching Rank: 5th

Quarterback Rank: 5th

ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): 25th percentile

Penn State gets in the Playoff IF: They stay the course. The Nittany Lions have done everything right under James Franklin, except win big games. Drew Allar returns for another year and this team is not short on talent.

Penn State avoids Michigan and Oregon this year, but does have to travel to USC and will host Ohio State. The Nittany Lions also play a week one game at West Virginia. Penn State should be favored in at least 10-12 ball games and if they win those ten, they will be in a prime position for a playoff spot.

Final Analysis: It’s about taking that next step for James Franklin. This team is almost a lock for 10 wins, but the question is can they win the big ones? This team should be a playoff team, but unlikely to win the BIG 10.

Tennessee -

Talent Rank: 15th

Coaching Rank: 13th

Quarterback Rank: 28th

ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): 35th percentile

Tennessee gets in the Playoff IF: Nico Lamaleava is the real deal. The Vols offense was not the same last year after losing Hindon Hooker to the NFL and Josh Heupel’s offense need to get back to 2022 form.

The Vols have significant talent and did a good job in the portal. Tennessee also as the fifth easiest schedule in the SEC in 2024. The Vol’s have a pivotal week two game against NC State and travel to Oklahoma in the first half of the season.

They will host Alabama and travel to Georgia. If the Vols can split those four, they should be in the expanded playoff.

Final Analysis: It’s Nico time in Knoxville. If Lamaleava is the real deal then look out on Rocky Top. Everyone is eyeing Missouri out of the old SEC East for the playoff, but the Vols look more playoff ready than the Tigers and I like Tennessee to make it into the 12 team field.

Tier 2 - Silver Tier

Tier 2 teams have a lot of the ingrediencies that go into a playoff team, but may still be a player or two away from being in the elite category. They typically have recruited at a high rate, but still have a missing piece or two, to win the championship.

Below is a breakdown of the teams I feel are tier 2 and what they have to do to beat the field.

Miami -

Talent Rank: 5th

Coaching Rank: 21st

Quarterback Rank: 10th

ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): 50th percentile

Miami gets in the Playoff IF: Mario Cristobal gets out of the way. Miami has all the ingrediants to win their first ACC Championship and a schedule that is pure football gold. The Canes play the easiest schedule in the ACC and have recruited as good as anybody and worked the portal well.

Cam Ward will get his last shot in college football as a Cane and it should be a good one. The Canes still need to improve their offensive and defensive scoring efficiency numbers to be a real title contender, but this is as good a Miami team as we have seen in some time.

Final Analysis: Mario Cristobal is only one game over 500 for his career as a head coach, but this could be the pop off point of his career. This Miami team is loaded and they can make a statement week one at the Swamp against the Florida Gators. If Miami gets off to a fast start, look out! If the Gators or USF in week four pop the Canes early, it’s the same song and dance in south beach. I have Miami winning the ACC and making the playoffs with a first round bye.

The Rebs have the table set - they just need to eat now.

Ole Miss -

Talent Rank: 11th

Coaching Rank: 8th

Quarterback Rank: 12th

ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): 30th percentile

Ole Miss gets in the Playoff IF: The Rebs live up to the hype and expectations. Ole Miss is coming off 11 wins and a Peach Bowl victory. The Rebs return a top tier quarterback in Jaxson Dart and Lane Kiffin has crushed the portal.

This Ole Miss team has all the ingredients to make the playoff this year, but they will sneak up on no one. The Rebs get key games against Oklahoma and Georgia at home, but do have to travel to South Carolina, LSU, Arkansas and Florida. If this team can stay healthy and focused – look out!

Final Analysis: Ole Miss has worked for this moment, making all the right portal moves under Kiffin and they have huge momentum coming off an 11 win season. The Reb will fall short of the SEC title game, but make the playoffs with an at large bid.

Florida State -

Talent Rank: 10th

Coaching Rank: 6th

Quarterback Rank: 23rd

ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): Outside 20th percentile.

Florida State gets in the Playoff IF: All the new pieces fit for Mike Norvell. DJ Uiagalelei has come back to the ACC, and this time it’s championship or bust; his words not mine.

Florida State is one of the better teams in the portal under Norvell and that proved true with last years undefeated regular season.

FSU will have the lions share of votes to win the ACC in 2024 and should be in that championship game in their league.

Final Analysis: Baring a disastrous injury again, this Noles team should be primed for a playoff run. FSU does have to play Clemson at home and travel to Miami and Notre Dame.

Even if this team slips to 10-2, that should be good enough to make the playoff.

Notre Dame -

Talent Rank: 9th

Coaching Rank: 27th

Quarterback Rank: 14th

ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): 15th percentile.

Notre Dame gets in the Playoff IF: Riley Leonard returns to 2022 form. The Irish again looks to spark their offense with a transfer quarterback and they have pieces to go with Leonard. Notre Dame will always play solid defense, so it comes down to a few big games for the Irish. Big games on the road book end their schedule with Texas A&M and USC. They host Louisville and Florida State.

Final Analysis: Marcus Freeman has done a great job in South Bend and again looks to use the portal to make that next step.

If the Irish can win week one in College Station, this could be a special year for Notre Dame. If they can get to 10-2, there is no way the committee leaves them out of the 12 team field.

Tier 1 - Gold Tier

Tier, one teams have all the ingrediencies needed to win a National Title, but they don’t always pull that off. This is the elite class of college football.

Below is a breakdown of the teams I feel are tier 1 and what they have to do to beat the field.

Ohio State-

Talent Rank: 7th

Coaching Rank: 2nd

Quarterback Rank: 18th

ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): Inside the number - 10 percentile

Ohio State gets in the Playoff IF: There is no if for Ohio State this year. It is bang or bust for the Buckeyes after a very active offseason, which saw Ryan Day land a big time quarterback, running back and other players in the portal. Chip Kelly comes over from UCLA as his offensive coordinator and after coming off a year where they had to watch Michigan win the National Title – there is no if for Ohio State.

It is national semifinal or better or it could spell trouble for Ryan Day.

Final Analysis: Ohio State Looks to be pivoting towards a more physical football team, bringing in dual threat quarterback Will Howard, All American running back Quinshon Judkins. This team has gone all in on 2024 so it has to pay off. The Buckeyes have key games on the road at Oregon and Penn State, and host Michigan to close the year. They should be playing for the BIG 10 title and will be in play for one of the four round one bye slots.

The Dogs look to return to the National Stage in a big way in 2024.

Georgia -

Talent Rank: 1st

Coaching Rank: 1st

Quarterback Rank: 13th

ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): Top 10 percentile

Georgia gets in the Playoff IF: They keep being Georgia. The Dogs are loaded as always and Carson Beck returns a year more experienced. The Dogs do have a big week one matchup against Clemson on a neutral site, road games at Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas and host Tennessee. This will be one of the more challenging schedules the Dogs have played in recent memory. They need their offense to click in 2024.

Final Analysis: Georgia is still Georgia, but the Dogs do have some concern with some portal attrition and can the Dogs replace the production of Brock Bowers? This schedule is one of the tougher ones in the league, but Kirby Smart has built this team for this. They should again play for the SEC Title and be in play for one of the top four seeds in the expanded playoff.

Texas -

Talent Rank: 4th

Coaching Rank: 9th

Quarterback Rank: 16th

ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): Inside Average 15th percentile

Texas gets in the Playoff IF: They continue to build off last years playoff run. The Longhorns return a ton of talent and have worked the portal well. Steve Sarkisian has already gotten over the Texas is back mantra. The Longhorns are no doubt back – it’s just staying “back”. Offensively they need to get a little better and keep the defensive pace that set them apart from most in 2023.

Final Analysis: Texas jumps off into the SEC and should do it with a splash. The Longhorns have a week two trip to Michigan at the Big House, host Georgia, play their annual with Oklahoma and go to Texas A&M to end the season. The Horns should be favorites in 11-12 ballgames this year. This team if healthy should play for the SEC Title and like Georgia, be in line for one of the four automatic bids and top seeds.

Oregon -

Talent Rank: 2nd

Coaching Rank: 12th

Quarterback Rank: 1st

ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): Inside Average 10th percentile

Oregon gets in the Playoff IF: They don’t get “Penixed”. Oregon lost two games by six points a year ago and that kept them out of the party.

Dan Lanning has taken a great program in Oregon and built a monster. Oregon brought in the top portal quarterback in Dillion Gabriel, and also brought in UCLA transfer quarterback Dante Moore, who should have a place at times in this offense. The Ducks added wide out Evan Stewart from Texas A&M to go with a stacked ball catcher room and added Northwest Missouri State running Back Jay Harris, who is a large framed kid that tallied 1,645 yards and 19 touchdowns in 15 games. He will be another addition to an explosive offense.

Lanning’s Ducks play defense like an SEC team and they added depth and maturity in the portal on that side of the ball as well.

Final Analysis: The Ducks have played twice for a National Championship; both loses in 2010 and 2014. This has been a program on a 25-year build and where they are today is amazing.

Oregon will hit the Big Ten running and be hard to handle. Key games include hosting Ohio State and traveling to Michigan – But this team is just built different than most around the country.

2024 will be the first ever 12 team playoff.

Final Analysis:

I like this team a lot and they have all the pieces to win the entire thing. That’s why I am picking Oregon to win the National Championship over Texas in the first ever 12 team playoff.

Michigan got their first one last year since 1997 and I called that this time last year. This year I am more confident than last – that’s why I am flying high with the Oregon Duck!

There is little separation at the top between Ohio State, Oregon, Texas and Georgia – but Oregon checks every box that needs to be checked where the others are just a hair off on a few.

It should be a great 12 team playoff!

Quack Attack – It’s time Oregon!