2024 Florida Projections on the HG

Jake Wimberly

Ben Parker Contributing

What’s to like:

Graham Mertz will be returning at quarterback alongside a few key offensive starters. Billy Napier has added several seasoned coaches to his staff. Florida picked up a decent 2024 recruiting class adding five-star quarterback DJ Lagway and OL LJ McCray. Florida has also picked up numerous transfers in the off season.

What’s not to like:

Florida has an incredibly difficult schedule for 2024 and have lost many key players to the transfer portal. Florida’s first two years under Billy Napier were rough and in 2023 the team failed to make a bowl game for the first time since 2017.

What does the Hourglass say?

2024 Florida – SEC (2-10)

Four-year analytic percentage of Florida = 85 percent

2024 Florida Analytics

National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 19th - outside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.

National Coaching Ranking: Billy Napier - 69th in the country, 15th in SEC; 2024 coaching value= -2 (average 2023 Power 5 coaching value= 8.35) Billy Napier ranks far below the national average.

ODE Analytics for 2023 nationally:

Offensive Rank: 28th

Defensive Rank: 86th

Quarterback Play: Graham Mertz- ranked 21st in the Power 5, 6th in the SEC; 2024 QB value=19.8. Above the (Power 5 average- 14.78)

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Florida has a 2 on a scale of 1-5, skill talent is not great.

From Vegas:

Florida ATS in 2023: 4-8-0

Florida at home: 2-4-0

Florida on the road: 2-3-0

Florida at neutral site: 0-1-0

FINAL THOUGHTS:

There is no doubt that Florida has a difficult road ahead in 2024. They have arguably the toughest schedule in the conference and one of the toughest in the nation. In order to defy the odds, head coach Billy Napier has a lot of work to do. Hopefully when the transfer portal window opens in a few weeks, Florida can pick up some more talent. They sure do need it.

The outlook is not good heading into 2024 with a projected 2-10 record for the Gators. If they can overcome the challenges ahead and add a few more to the win column, Napier might be able to stay in Gainesville.

2024 Schedule Analysis:

Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.