2024 LSU Football Projections on the HG
Jake Wimberly
Ben Parker Contributing
What’s to like:
LSU struggled heavily with pass defense last season, but that is expected to improve. Head coach Brian Kelly cleaned house and hired a new defensive coordinator, safeties coach, and cornerbacks coach. Two incoming Ohio State cornerback transfers are likely to make an impact in the Tigers secondary, as well as Texas A&M transfer Jardin Gilbert.
LSU should be able to roll through their relatively easy first five games and settle in before facing Ole Miss in Baton Rouge. They will also have a bye the week before arguably their toughest matchup. Not to mention that LSU is notoriously good at home in Death Valley.
What’s not to like:
Garrett Nussmeier is the assumed starting quarterback for 2024, but he is unproven. Per the Hourglass he ranks 59th nationally and 16th in the SEC. He needs time to develop following a stellar performance by the outgoing Heisman winner Jayden Daniels. The two have very different play styles. Nussmeier is a pocket passer whereas Daniels was able to use his legs to make plays.
What does the Hourglass say?
2024 LSU – SEC (9-3)
Four-year analytic percentage of LSU = 81 percent
2024 LSU Analytics
National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 8th - inside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.
National Coaching Ranking: Brian Kelly - 3rd in the country, 3rd in SEC; 2024 coaching value= 20 (average 2023 Power 5 coaching value= 8.35) Brian Kelly ranks well above the national average.
ODE Analytics for 2023 nationally:
Offensive Rank: 1st
Defensive Rank: 106th
Quarterback Play: Garrett Nussmeier- ranked 59th in the Power 5, 13th in the SEC; 2024 QB value=5.5. Below the (Power 5 average- 14.78)
Impact Ball Catcher Metric: LSU has a 3 on a scale of 1-5, skill talent is reasonable.
From Vegas:
LSU ATS in 2023: 8-5-0
LSU at home: 6-1-0
LSU on the road: 2-2-0
LSU at neutral site: 0-2-0
FINAL THOUGHTS:
Expectations are high as Brian Kelly heads into his third year at LSU and the season opener against USC in Las Vegas will set the tone for their season. If they can beat USC, 9, maybe even 10 wins and a bowl appearance is well within reason. Kelly has done well getting homegrown talent as well as dipping into the transfer portal. It’s looking like LSU’s defense will be in much better shape heading into 2024 than last year.
The month of October will be crucial for LSU, with key matchups against Ole Miss and Texas A&M. Despite an easy early season run, facing Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Alabama will be difficult. They will have to fight hard for those wins.
While an undefeated run may not be in the cards, 10 wins may be just within reach for the Tigers this year.
2024 Schedule Analysis:
Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.
