2025 Tennessee Predictions on the HG

Apr 23

Apr 23 2025 Tennessee Predictions on the HG

Jake Wimberly

Ross Gaskin Contributing:

What’s to like:

The Volunteers are one of the hottest teams in college football right now. Head coach Josh Heupel has his team looking strong, and a lot of that is due to their QB Joey Aguilar who transferred out of App. State. Aguilar in 2024 threw for 3,003 yards and 23 TDs.

The Tennessee defense is also coming back strong in 2025. They will have returning stars with DB Jermod McCoy and LB Arion Carter. The Volunteers had the 4th ranked defense last season, and will be ranked right around the same spot this season.

What’s not to like:

Tennessee probably took the biggest hit from players going to the draft. On offense, the Vols lost RB Dylan Sampson, WR Squirrel White, and WR Dont’e Thornton Jr. They also lost young star QB, Nico Iamaleava, who transferred due to NIL disagreements. However, none of the guys compare to who they lost on defense.

On defense, the Vols lost one of the best edge rushers in college football with James Pearce Jr. Pearce racked up 38 tackles, 13 TFLs, and 7.5 sacks while forcing 1 fumble. It will be very hard to replace a player of that caliber. Josh Heupel will have a lot of work to do if he wants to improve on what the Vols accomplished in 2024.

What does the Hourglass say?

Tennessee- SEC (9-3)

Power ranking 113.70. 16th toughest schedule in the SEC.

2025 Tennessee Analytics

National recruiting rating (three year metric): #20- inside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.

National Coaching Ranking:

Josh Heupel- 10th in Power 5 and 6th in the SEC.

2024 coaching value= 15 (average 2025 Power 5 coaching value=9.3) Josh Heupel ranks as one of the best coaches in the Power 5.

ODE analytics 2024 Nationally:

Offensive Ranking: 27th

Defensive Ranking: 4th

Quarterback Play: Aguilar- ranked 37th in the Power 4, 8th in the SEC; 2024 QB value= 12.2 (Power 4 average- 14.41)

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Tennessee has an Impact Ball Catcher Metric of 2. This puts the Vols at the lower level for the SEC in this metric.

From Vegas:

Tennessee ATS in 2024: 7-6

Tennessee at home: 4-3

Tennessee on the road: 2-3

Tennessee neutral site: 1-0

Final thoughts:

The Tennessee Volunteers are establishing as a force to be reckoned with, and this season could be one to remember with all of the youth they have. Joey Aguilar will have to learn the offense quickly, and the younger guys will have to step up to replace those who left in hopes that Josh Heupel and his Vols can continue to have one of the most dominant teams in the SEC. They have already made it to the playoffs, so they will be looking for more in the 2025 College Football Season.

2025 Schedule analysis:

Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.