2025 Boise State Predictions on the HG
Jake Wimberly
Ross Gaskin
What’s to like:
The Boise State Broncos are coming off their best season ever with their first appearance in the college football playoffs. The Broncos will have a great team headed into 2025 with the offense being led by their dominant QB and TE duo. The QB Maddux Madsen threw for 3,018 yards and 23 TDs.
Madsen threw 619 of those yards and 7 TDs to his favorite target TE Matt Lauter. The offense will be backed up by a stellar Broncos defense being led by DE Jayden Virgin-Morgan and S Ty Benefield. These two in 2024 combined for 122 tackles, 10 sacks, 20.5 TFLs, 2 FFs, and 2 INTs.
What’s not to like:
The Broncos will be without their star running back who had one of the greatest seasons for not just a running back, but for any position in college football. Ashton Jeanty came second in the Heisman race after rushing for 2,601 yards and 29 TDs. Jeanty came 28 yards short of breaking Barry Sanders' record of 2,628 rush yards.
Boise State will also be without their learning receiver Cameron Camper. Camper will be transferring to the USC Trojans after racking up 903 receiving yards and 4 TDs. Head Coach Spencer Danielson will need to find a way to succeed without these guys, but with the pieces they are keeping and getting, they should have another successful season.
What does the Hourglass say?
Boise State- MWC (10-2)
Power ranking 73.31. 2nd toughest schedule in the MWC.
2025 Boise State Analytics
National recruiting rating (three year metric): #75- outside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.
National Coaching Ranking:
Spencer Danielson- 36th in G5 and 9th in the MWC.
2024 coaching value= 2 (average 2025 G5 coaching value=3.58) Spencer Danielson ranks on the lower tier for coaches in college football.
ODE analytics 2024 Nationally:
Offensive Ranking: 11th
Defensive Ranking: 35th
Quarterback Play: Madsen- ranked 3rd in the G5, 1st in the MWC; 2024 QB value= 21 (G5 average- 9.4)
Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Boise State has an Impact Ball Catcher Metric of 3. This puts the Broncos at the average level for the MWC in this metric.
From Vegas:
Boise State ATS in 2024: 7-7
Boise State at home: 4-3
Boise State on the road: 3-3
Boise State neutral site: 0-1
Final thoughts:
Boise State fans will need to lower their expectations for the 2025 season. Ashton Jeanty had the greatest season for any football player in the last 20 years, and he was the main driving force behind all of the Broncos success in 2024.
Boise State will continue to have success, but it will not look or feel the same as last season. Broncos fans, be patient, trust Spencer Danielson as he prepares his team for life after Jeanty.
2025 Schedule analysis:
Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.
Editors Note: All photos courtesy of 247sports.com
