2025 Vanderbilt Predictions on the HG

Apr 22

Apr 22 2025 Vanderbilt Predictions on the HG

Jake Wimberly

Ross Gaskin Contributing:

What’s to like:

From zeroes to heroes, from upset to the up-setters! The Vanderbilt Commodores had a rollercoaster of a season in 2024. Head Coach Clark Lea and his Commodores were able to upset Alabama, and were very close to beating Texas, LSU, and Missouri. They have a bunch of stars returning, and they have a very solid transfer portal class.

The main Commodore returning is their fearless and gritty QB Diego Pavia. Pavia threw for 2,293 yards and 20 TDs while adding 801 yards and 8 TDs on the ground. However, it was not just the stats that stood out in 2024, it was how Diego Pavia would put his body on the line and lead his team to victory.

What’s not to like:

While things are looking up for Vandy football, there are some things that are still holding them down. The Commodores are losing a TE, a couple of WRs, and a bunch of guys on defense. Also, even when they had these guys, their offensive and defensive outputs were still not all that great.

Vanderbilt had the 28th ranked offense in the country which is fine, but their defense was ranked 73rd and that is a problem. Their defense gave up a lot of points, making it extremely difficult to keep their offense in the game. The Commodores will have to shore up that defense if they want to get past that 6-6 mark.

What does the Hourglass say?

Vanderbilt- SEC (6-6)

Power ranking 87.49. 7th toughest schedule in the SEC.

2025 Vanderbilt Analytics

National recruiting rating (three year metric): #60- outside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.

National Coaching Ranking:

Clark Lea- 64th in Power 5 and 15th in the SEC.

2024 coaching value= 3 (average 2025 Power 5 coaching value=9.3) Clark Lea is ranked as one of the lower tier coaches in the Power 5.

ODE analytics 2024 Nationally:

Offensive Ranking: 28th

Defensive Ranking: 73rd

Quarterback Play: Pavia- ranked 11th in the Power 4, 3rd in the SEC; 2024 QB value= 21.2 (Power 4 average- 14.41).

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Vanderbilt has an Impact Ball Catcher Metric of 3. This puts the Commodores at middle of the pack for the SEC in this metric.

From Vegas:

Vanderbilt ATS in 2024: 9-4

Vanderbilt at home: 4-3

Vanderbilt on the road: 4-1

Vanderbilt neutral site: 1-0

Final thoughts:

Everybody that has been sleeping on Vanderbilt, y’all need to wake up! The Commodores are rising rapidly up the ranks as one the toughest teams to beat in the SEC. Diego Pavia is ready to leave it all on the field in his final season to help raise Vandy to higher levels. The SEC better watch out because the Commodores are going to anchor down and will be tough to beat.

2025 Schedule analysis:

Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.