2019 Alabama football projections on the HG

What’s to like

Well, for starters Alabama again owns the best coach in the land according to the metrics. Combine Nick Saban with Tua Tagovailoa, the second-best QB1 in college football according to HG metrics and the Tide will certainly have a puncher’s chance at the very least. Tagovailoa will have a bevy of talented receivers to distribute it to, including the elite Jerry Jeudy.

Defensively, Raekwon Davis returns in the middle of Saban’s 3-4 scheme and at least provides the talent that could give the Tide another Quinnen Davis-like showing in 2019.

Then there’s that schedule - which ranks 12th in the SEC - that provides zero non-conference discomfort. As well, LSU comes to Bryant-Denny this season. South Carolina, Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Auburn do present a number of potential road stumbles.

Bonus note: if we get another Bama/Clemson rematch, just remember the Tide have significantly out-recruited the Tigers over the past three years (Bama - 2nd, Clemson - 10th in 3-year talent metric).

What to be concerned about

Alabama always seems to alleviate any concerns that new faces will step up on the defensive side of the ball, but new impact players again must emerge at all three levels. Can Dylan Moses plug into the star MLB role as other before him have? How many newcomers make an impact in the secondary?

On the offensive side, the offensive line will reshuffle some and the pressure will be ever-ratcheted up on Tagovailoa. Again, these are problems the Tide always seem to encounter and manage systematically.

What the HourGlass says

Unlike in 2017 and 2018, this year the HourGlass doesn’t have the Tide rolling to a national championship. This year, the undefeated Crimson Tide will fall to Georgia in the SEC championship and settle for a matchup with Texas in the Sugar bowl.

2019 HG analytics pick: 12-1, SEC Championship runner up.

2018 Analytics Pick 13-0; Actual Record 13-0 (100 percent accuracy)

2017 Analytics Pick 13-0; Actual Record 12-1 (92 percent accuracy)

Two-year analytic percentage on Alabama = 96 percent

2019 Alabama Analytics –

Hour Glass National Recruiting Ranking: 2nd – Inside our Realistic College Football National Champion Line on our talent index.

National Coaching Rank for Nick Saban on HG Scale: 1st (Nick Saban Stamp at 41) – Average coaching value for 2019 set at 5.5.

Returning Alabama quarterback play rated 2nd in the country out of 130 teams. Average quarterback stamp nationally for 201 is 9.5. Alabama has a quarterback metric value of 40.7.

ODE Analytics – NOTE: ODE is our offensive and defensive scoring efficiency ranking for each team. We use a two-year evaluation of each program.

Alabama ranks number one in the country in our 2019 ODE evaluation. Offensively they have a ranking of 2nd in the country and defensively 2nd in the country.