2021 Alabama football projections on the HG
Jake Wimberly
What’s to like:
It’s hard not to like everything about Alabama. They recruit better than most everyone on a given year, and just raked in the number one recruiting class in the country.
Nick Saban has won seven national titles, and is the best college football coach of all time. They are the poster boy of college football and they don’t look to be going anywhere anytime soon.
While the faces are changing in 2021 with tons of guys either off to the NFL or out of eligibility, the Tide will again field their most highly touted quarterback ever in Bryce Young, a ton of talent all over the field and you can expect at the least, a double digit win season again this year.
What’s not to like:
Turnover - massive turnover, not just on the field but off the field. You have to ask yourself how long can Alabama stay on top with so much turnover. From the offensive line, to the backfield, wide receivers and more; Alabama has to replace a ton. Then there’s a new change in the coordinator ranks. Massive attrition and change will get the best of teams and this year you could see it take Alabama back just a bit, which will likely still be better than 90 percent of the country.
What does the Hourglass Say?
2021 Alabama pick: 12-1 - SEC West Champion - Runner Up in the overall SEC
Four-year analytic percentage on Alabama = 94 percent
2021 Alabama Analytics –
Hour Glass National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 2nd – Inside our Realistic College Football Playoff Championship bust line. Alabama far and away has the talent to again win the National Title.
National Coaching Nick Saban on HG Scale: 1st (Nick Saban 2021 coaching value set at (38) – Average coaching value for 2021 set at 7.1. – Saban is considered elite.
ODE Analytics – NOTE: ODE is our offensive and defensive scoring efficiency ranking for each team. We use a two-year evaluation of each program.
Alabama ranks 1st in the country in our 2021 ODE evaluation. Offensively they have a ranking of 1st in the country and defensively 3rd in the country.
Quarterback Play: Alabama has the 36th best quarterback situation in the country going into the season. Their value is set at (7.8). Our national average for average quarterback play is 9.10. Alabama is just under the average number, but expected to trend high and do so pretty fast.
Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Ranking the teams wide receiver play - and do they have quality, impact wide receivers. Alabama ranks 6th in the country.
FINAL THOUGHTS:
Many will pick Alabama to win the National Title and why not? What Nick Saban has been able to do and continue to do at Alabama is totally remarkable. But, let’s remember Alabama doesn’t win the title every year.
Alabama very well may put together another special season, but with so much turnover and change, I look for this Alabama team to resemble their 2010 team. That team took some bumps and bruises, went on to still win double digit win games and won the title the next year.
Alabama has a lot of learning on the field to do, and some games that could end up being traps for them like a trip to Florida in week three.
I do expect Alabama to win the SEC West again, but lose to Georgia in the Championship game and garner a New Years Day Six game.
