2020 North Carolina football predictions on the HG

What’s to like:

How about a rebirth of Carolina football?  After a crashing to earth under former head coach Larry Fedora, Mac Brown returned for his second stint in Chapel Hill and instantly made Tar Heel fans forget about their misfortunes.

Freshman Sam Howell threw 38 touchdowns and returns for a sophomore year full of promise under Phil Longo’s offense. The Heel’s return almost 2,000 yards between Michael Carter and Javonte Williams.

The Heel’s are recruiting at an amazing clip and showing quickly, this team will be a force in the next few years in the ACC.

What’s not to like:

Close losses – got to learn how to win. All six Carolina losses a year ago were by a touchdown or less. That comes with formulating a winning culture, something that happens over time. Also, defensively, the Heel’s have to get a little better, giving up big plays and 24 points per game.

This team was very average on third down a year ago, with only a 38 percent stop rate on the games biggest play.

What does the Hourglass Say?

2020 North Carolina pick: Tarheels 10-2 overall, 7-1 in the ACC, winning the ACC Coastal

2019 HG analytics pick: 5-7; Actual Record 6-6 (96 percent)

 2018 Analytics Pick 7-5; Actual Record 2-9 (58 percent accuracy)

2017 Analytics Pick 10-2; Actual Record 3-9 (42 percent accuracy)

Three-year analytic percentage on North Carolina = 64 percent

 2020 North Carolina Analytics –

Hour Glass National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 21st – Inside our Realistic College Football Playoff Bust Line on our talent index. North Carolina does have a roster that can realistically make the Playoff.  

National Coaching Rank for Mac Brown on HG Scale: 36th (Mac Brown 2020 coaching value set at 3.7) – Average coaching value for 2020 set at 6.5. – We know Mac Brown is legendary, but being back in the game, he sets around the average line for now.  I would expect him to trend back where many see him for his career at Carolina.

Returning Carolina quarterback play rated 3rd the country in our Power Five quarterback Rankings. Average quarterback metric for 2020 set at 11.66.  Carolina quarterback metric value is 32.4 – putting them in elite quarterback value for 2020.

ODE Analytics – NOTE: ODE is our offensive and defensive scoring efficiency ranking for each team. We use a two-year evaluation of each program.

North Carolina ranks 68th in the country in our 2020 ODE evaluation. Offensively they have a ranking of 51st in the country and defensively 82nd in the country.

FINAL THOUGHTS:

Carolina is one of the few teams we have had trouble pegging the last four years. To be honest, the entire ACC Coastal has been somewhat of a mystery.

Carolina should have never been as bad as they were the last two seasons of Fedora. There is talent on this team, and while they need vast improvement on defense, this team is set to have a really good year.

While they aren’t ready to be Clemson, they are good enough to win the Coastal and challenge Clemson in the ACC Title game, which is what they should do this year. 

Projected Hour Glass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.