2020 Nebraska football predictions on the HG
By Jake Wimberly
What’s to like:
Improved roster talent – Nebraska has now the fourth best roster talent in the BIG 10 on our three-year metric, putting them ahead slightly over the likes of Wisconsin and Minnesota.
Also, Big Red returns most of its offensive production from a year ago; a team that averaged just under 29 points per game.
If Adrian Martinez can find that “next gear” as the teams starting quarterback, this offense could look pretty darn good in 2020.
What’s not to like:
This teams ability to finish games or close when needed. The Cornhuskers have lost nine ball games over the last two years by seven points or less. This team has yet to show a “finish” type of attitude.
Four of the last five years have been on the losing end for Big Red, so it’s extremely imperative for Scott Frost and his staff to change the way this team believes and plays.
Also, defensively this team has been below average, ranking 61st the last two years on our ODE tracker on the defensive side of the ball.
What does the Hourglass Say?
2020 Nebraska pick: 6-6; 4th in the BIG 10 West
2019 HG analytics pick: 9-3; Actual Record 5-7 (55 percent)
2018 Analytics Pick 6-6; Actual Record 4-8 (83 percent accuracy)
2017 Analytics Pick 9-3; Actual Record 4-8 (44 percent accuracy)
Three-year analytic percentage on Nebraska = 67 percent
2020 Nebraska Analytics –
Hour Glass National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 20th – Inside our Realistic College Football Playoff, Talent line. Nebraska is just inside the talent label for the playoff.
National Coaching Rank for Scott Frost on HG Scale: 63rd (Scott Frost 2020 coaching value set at (-4)) – Average coaching value for 2020 set at 6.5. – Frost is considered below average on our metric.
ODE Analytics – NOTE: ODE is our offensive and defensive scoring efficiency ranking for each team. We use a two-year evaluation of each program.
Nebraska ranks 52nd in the country in our 2020 ODE evaluation. Offensively they have a ranking of 54th in the country and defensively 61st in the country.
FINAL THOUGHTS:
Nebraska shouldn’t be as average as they have been the last few years. The Huskers have talent and have lost games a plenty by just a small margin.
This year, the Huskers play the 4th hardest schedule on our BIG 10 SOS rankings, and while the battles will be there, we fee it’s time for Frost to take the Huskers at least back to post season play.
The Huskers again play about five games that could be decided by a touchdown or less. They have to win more of these than they lose in 2020.
We have Nebraska finishing 6-6 and heading to a bowl; but if Frost hits under the mark again, it might be time for Big Red to start thinking of a contingency plan.
Projected Hour Glass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.
