2021 North Carolina football predictions on the HG

Apr 27

Apr 27 2021 North Carolina football predictions on the HG

Jake Wimberly

What’s to like:

Stability - Mack Brown has created stability back into the program for a second time and he has made North Carolina relevant again in ACC football.

Carolina returns arguably the best quarterback in the country in Sam Howell. Howell ranks as our number one quarterback in our power five quarterback rankings and is a front runner for the Heisman Trophy.

You also have to like the schedule in 2021 for Carolina - as they avoid Clemson in the regular season, but do have a late season trip to Notre Dame and Pittsburgh.

What’s not to like:

Defense at times. Carolina has to continue to improve off a 29.4 points per game average on defense. The offense is going to score, but four times last year, the Tar Heels gave up over 40 points in a ball game. The Heels only garnered eight interceptions a year ago on defense as well, and were 87 percent in the red zone.

If Carolina wants to really be a threat in the ACC and Nationally, they have to play better defense in the biggest of games.

What does the Hourglass Say?

2021 North Carolina pick: 10-2; 7-1 - Runner Up in the ACC

Four-year analytic percentage on North Carolina = 91 percent

2021 North Carolina Analytics –

Hour Glass National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 19th – Inside our Realistic College Football Playoff bust line. Carolina has the talent on their roster to make the College Football Playoff, but not win the Championship.

National Coaching Rank for Mack Brown on HG Scale: 20th (Mack Brown 2021 coaching value set at (6.7) – Average coaching value for 2021 set at 7.1. – Brown is considered e average on our metric, but trending up.

ODE Analytics – NOTE: ODE is our offensive and defensive scoring efficiency ranking for each team. We use a two-year evaluation of each program.

North Carolina ranks 39th in the country in our 2021 ODE evaluation. Offensively they have a ranking of 22nd in the country and defensively 55th in the country.

Quarterback Play: North Carolina has the No. 1- best quarterback situation in the country going into the season. Their value is set at (27.5). Our national average for average quarterback play is 9.10. North Carolina has elite quarterback play.

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Ranking the teams wide receiver play - and do they have quality, impact wide receivers. North Carolina ranks 45th in the country.

FINAL THOUGHTS:

North Carolina has improved their talent metric over the last three years and they have elite quarterback play in Howell. This could be a magical year if they develop chemistry on the offensive side of the ball; but they still need to play better defense in 2021.

Carolina has all the tools to get to the ACC Championship; but will need to play at an even higher level to win the conference this year.

We set the ceiling at 10, but the floor for this team could be at eight wins if things don’t develop defensively or a play maker or two does not emerge.

Projected Hour Glass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.