Cincinnati poised to have monster 2020 on college football stage

By Jake Wimberly

NOTE: Photos courtesy of 247sports.com

What’s to like:

Luke Fickell; he’s won 22 games in the last two years and is one of the hottest Group of Five coaches in the country.

The Bearcats also return 12 of their top 14 tacklers from a year ago, on a defensive unit that gave up a salty 21 points per game.

Offensively, they return their starting quarterback in Hayden Moore, their top wide receiver and an offensive system that has lived around 30 points per game the last two years.

The Bearcats also, now have the best three-year roster talent in the AAC and they show no signs of slowing down on the recruiting trail.

What’s not to like:

Finishing the deal in big moments and road games. The Bearcats losses the last two years all fall on the road, and some close losses at Temple and at Memphis. This team has all the tools to do big things, but they have to show it on the road.

What does the Hourglass Say?

2020 Cincinnati pick: Bearcats 12-0, winning the AAC and playing in the Fiesta Bowl (New Year’s Day Six)

2019 HG analytics pick: 9-3; Actual Record 10-2 (96 percent)

2018 Analytics Pick 8-4; Actual Record 10-2 (92 percent accuracy)

Two-year analytic percentage on Cincinnati = 88 percent

2020 Cincinnati Analytics –

Hour Glass National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 55th – Outside our Realistic College Football Playoff Bust Line on our talent index.

National Coaching Rank for Luke Fickel on HG Scale: 4th on our G5 Scale - (Luke Fickel 2020 coaching value set at 13) – Average coaching value for 2020 set at 2.9 in Group of Five; Fickel would be considered above average in the Power Five as well. –

Returning Cincinnati quarterback play rated 14th in the country in our Group of Five quarterback Rankings. Average quarterback metric for 2020 set at 8.4.

Cincinnati quarterback metric value is 12.3 – putting them in elite quarterback value for 2020.

ODE Analytics – NOTE: ODE is our offensive and defensive scoring efficiency ranking for each team. We use a two-year evaluation of each program.

Cincinnati ranks 31st in the country in our 2020 ODE evaluation. Offensively they have a ranking of 68th in the country and defensively 13th in the country.

FINAL THOUGHTS:

Cincinnati has risen in the ranks of the G5 fast under Fickel, and is poised to take over in the AAC in 2020.

It was surprising to see Fickel come back to Cincinnati for another year, but the Bearcats will gladly have him. They should go undefeated, or post at the worst another double-digit win total for the year.

An early season game at Nebraska could set the tone for a magical year for the Bearcats.

Projected Hour Glass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.