2020 Oregon football predictions on the HG
By Jake Wimberly
What’s to like:
Momentum; and upward momentum at that. Oregon has been on the cusp of great things for long time and now the Ducks hold the top roster talent in the PAC 12 in our PAC 12 talent metrics.
Last year the Ducks averaged 35 points per game and gave up just 16 points per game and looked the part of a College Football Playoff type team most of the year.
The Ducks return almost all of their 2400 rushing yards from a year ago and 17 interceptions in a secondary that should be one of the better ones in the country.
A week two match-up against Ohio State looms large for this program as they are ready to take “that next step” and put the PAC 12 back on the map.
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What’s not to like:
The big game. Last year the Ducks squandered away a lead and lost their opener to Auburn, then when they got back into the playoff hunt, they were upset on the road at Arizona State. This team has to rise to the occasion in their biggest moments if they want to be among the elites of college football.
The Ducks also must have quarterback Tyler Shough, grow up quickly if they want to be a serious contender.
What does the Hourglass Say?
2020 Oregon pick: 11-1; winners of the PAC 12
2019 HG analytics pick: 10-2; Actual Record 10-2 (100 percent)
2018 Analytics Pick 9-3; Actual Record 8-4 (92 percent accuracy)
2017 Analytics Pick 9-3; Actual Record 7-5 (83 percent accuracy)
Three-year analytic percentage on Oregon = 92 percent
2020 Oregon Analytics –
Hour Glass National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric) 11th – Inside our realistic talent level to win the National Championship. Oregon is inside our National Championship bust line on talent, meaning the Ducks have the talent to win the National Title.
2020 quarterback ranking for Oregon – 38th in the country. Quarterback metric value at 8. Average quarterback metric in the Power Five is 11.66. Oregon quarterback play right now is considered just below average, but we do not have enough data on said returning quarterbacks yet. Expect this position to improve.
National Coaching Rank for Mario Cristobal on HG Scale: 14th (Mario Cristobal 2020 coaching value set at 12 – Average coaching value for 2020 set at 6.5. –Cristobal is considered above average.
ODE Analytics – NOTE: ODE is our offensive and defensive scoring efficiency ranking for each team. We use a two-year evaluation of each program.
Oregon ranks 13th in the country in our 2020 ODE evaluation. Offensively they have a ranking of 16th in the country and defensively 21st in the country.
FINAL THOUGHTS:
This program’s been right there. Now it’s time for this team to take the next step. We have Oregon going 11-1 and winning the Pac 12, with their only loss to Ohio State.
If they can upset Ohio State OR get some help down the road, they may be able to get into the playoff anyway.
This team is loaded with quality talent and is on the cusp of joining the elites of college football.
Projected Hour Glass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.
