2020 Central Florida football predictions on the HG

By Jake Wimberly:

What’s to like:

It’s Central Florida; over the last four years, UCF has been the most talked about Group of Five team in the country – even more so than Boise State, who traditionally carries the G5 flag. 

Josh Heupel is looking to avenge three losses from a year ago and get the Knights back in the playoff conversation.

Sophomore quarterback Dillion Gabriel is one of the good ones, as he threw for over 3600 yards a year ago and 29 touchdowns.

The Knights return a pair of quality backs in Otis Anderson and Bentavious Thompson, and a slew of experienced pass catchers.

UCF will be in the mix again until the end in the AAC.

What’s not to like:

Recruiting for one. Yes, the Knights still have elite G5 talent, but this team has slipped recently, giving way to Cincinnati as the most talented roster in the AAC.

Also, the Knights have to find a replacement for linebacker Nate Evans, who was by far the leader of last years defense.

Also, their schedule is no cupcake this year, playing North Carolina in Orlando to open the season, at Memphis and Houston and a late season matchup hosting Cincinnati.

What does the Hourglass Say?

2020 Central Florida pick: Knights 10-2, runner up in the AAC East.

2019 HG analytics pick: 10-2; Actual Record 9-3 (92 percent)

 2018 Analytics Pick 11-1; Actual Record 12-0 (92 percent accuracy)

 Two-year analytic percentage on Central Florida = 92 percent

 2020 UCF Analytics –

Hour Glass National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 67th – Outside our Realistic College Football Playoff Bust Line on our talent index. Central Florida does not have a roster suited to make the playoff.

National Coaching Rank for Josh Heupel on HG Scale: 2nd on our G5 Scale - (Josh Heupel 2020 coaching value set at 16) – Average coaching value for 2020 set at 2.9 in Group of Five.

Returning UCF quarterback play rated 4th in the country in our Group of Five quarterback Rankings. Average quarterback metric for 2020 set at 8.4.  UCF quarterback metric value is 26.7 – putting them in elite quarterback value for 2020.

ODE Analytics – NOTE: ODE is our offensive and defensive scoring efficiency ranking for each team. We use a two-year evaluation of each program.

UCF ranks 11th in the country in our 2020 ODE evaluation. Offensively they have a ranking of 6th in the country and defensively 27th in the country.

FINAL THOUGHTS:

Central Florida has become a house hold name and when you look at their ODE numbers on our two-year trend, they have been right there as far as talking points for a birth into the College Football playoff.

If they can get over on North Carolina in week one and run the table, they would again have a voice about getting into the playoff. However, our analytics say Cincinnati will be just a bit better and UCF will finish second in the East.

If Heupel has another double digit win season, as they should, we will see if he takes a spot in a Power Five program.

Projected Hour Glass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.