2021 Cincinnati football projections on the HG

May 16

May 16 2021 Cincinnati football projections on the HG

Jake Wimberly

What’s to like:

Momentum. Momentum is a beautiful thing and Cincinnati under Luke Fickell has been straight hot! After a 4-8 season in 2017, Fickell’s club has reeled off 10 wins a season on average, the last three seasons.

The Bearcats return quarterback Desmond Ridder, who should be one of the best in the country and garner high interest from teams in the NFL for 2022.

They also return running back Jerome Ford who should see an expanded role this year as he is in his sophomore year.

The bulk of the 2,386 receiving yards return for Cincinnati as they have the 28th best receiving group returning on our metric.

What’s not to like:

The Bearcats are breaking in a new defensive coordinator in 2021 and have to replace a ton of production off last years team that gave up just 16.8 points per game.

They also have to now play with the target on their back after being arguably the best team in G5 the last two years. Cincinnati did everything but beat Georgia in their bowl game last year and now they won’t sneak up on anybody.

Cincinnati plays at Indiana and at Notre Dame this year, along with games against UCF, SMU and at Tulane. The road back to the New Years Day Six won’t be a cake walk.
What does the Hourglass Say?

2021 Cincinnati 11-1; 8-0 - Champion of the AAC

Four-year analytic percentage on Cincinnati = 91 percent

2021 Cincinnati Analytics –

Hour Glass National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): Cincinnati - 54th – Outside our Realistic College Football Playoff bust line. Cincinnati does not have the talent to make the College Football Playoff at this time.

National Coaching Luke Fickell on HG Scale: 1st in the G5, 11th overall (Luke Fickell 2021 coaching value set at (17) – Average coaching value for 2021 set at 7.1. – Fickell is considered above average on our metric.

ODE Analytics – NOTE: ODE is our offensive and defensive scoring efficiency ranking for each team. We use a two-year evaluation of each program.

Cincinnati ranks 31st in the country in our 2021 ODE evaluation. Offensively they have a ranking of 61st in the country and defensively 18th in the country.

Quarterback Play: Cincinnati has the 4th best quarterback situation in the G5 and 6th in the country going into the season. Their value is set at (20.3). Our national average for average quarterback play is 9.10. Cincinnati quarterback play is set above average on our national scale.

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Ranking the teams wide receiver play - and do they have quality, impact wide receivers. Cincinnati ranks 28th in the country.

FINAL THOUGHTS:

Cincinnati has become the class of the Group of Five and if the College Football Playoff Committee wanted to look the G5 way, it would be Cincinnati.

The Bearcats are the lead recruiter in the AAC, have the best coach in G5 and one of the best in the country and a quarterbacks in the country in Ridder.

If the defense can make the steps to maintain their dominance of a year ago, this team should at the least be playing in a New Years Six Day Game again, or they may make the College Football Playoff Committee sweat again in 2021.