2021 Oregon football projections on the HG

May 2

May 2 2021 Oregon football projections on the HG

Jake Wimberly

What’s to like:

Stability - Oregon has positioned itself as the premiere program out west.

The Ducks have upped their recruiting profile, have thrown players into the NFL and shown they are a force to be reckoned with down the road.

The biggest question is can they become now what Clemson did and has become a decade ago?

What’s not to like:

Quarterback uncertainty. After Tyler Shough took off to Texas A&M, it left a gaping hole in the Ducks at the most important position. The Ducks have a slew of talent but young led by Anthony Brown this spring are a trio of freshmen in Jay Butterfield, Robby Ashford, and Ty Thompson. You can read more on the quarterback position by whole flock of ducks writeup here.

Getting the right guy will go a long way into how far Oregon can fly in 2021.

Also you don’t like how 2020 went for the PAC 12 as a whole. The conference is getting a reboot at the top and needs to have a big year as a whole.

What does the Hourglass Say?

2021 Oregon pick: 10-2; 7-2 - Runner Up in the PAC 12

Four-year analytic percentage on Oregon = 84 percent

2021 Oregon Analytics –

Hour Glass National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 7th – Inside our Realistic College Football Championship bust line. Oregon has the talent on their roster to make the College Football Playoff, and possibly win the Championship.

National Coaching Mario Cristoball on HG Scale: 15th (Cristoball 2021 coaching value set at (12) – Average coaching value for 2021 set at 7.1. – Cristoball is considered above average on our metric.

ODE Analytics – NOTE: ODE is our offensive and defensive scoring efficiency ranking for each team. We use a two-year evaluation of each program.

Oregon ranks 13th in the country in our 2021 ODE evaluation. Offensively they have a ranking of 16th in the country and defensively 23rd in the country.

Quarterback Play: Oregon has the 45th best quarterback situation in the country going into the season. Their value is set at (5.1). Our national average for average quarterback play is 9.10. Oregon has a below average quarterback room at the moment, but most of that is due to uncertainty at the position. I expect the Ducks to blossom and move into the above average category by mid-season.

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Ranking the teams wide receiver play - and do they have quality, impact wide receivers. Oregon ranks 37th in the country.

FINAL THOUGHTS:

Oregon is a house hold name now in college football. The next thing for the Ducks is to live and stay on the National Stage. A week two matchup at Ohio State looms and not just for the Ducks, but the PAC 12. If the Ducks could upset Ohio State, they would bring life back into the PAC, and position their program for a run into the College Football Playoff.

Projected Hour Glass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.