2025 Oregon Predictions on the HG
Jake Wimberly
Ross Gaskin Contributing:
What’s to like:
The Oregon Ducks were one of the most dominant teams in college football in 2024. Dan Lanning had those flying higher than ever before especially on the offensive side where they ranked 3rd in the country. That offensive firepower will continue in 2025 as RB Makhi Hughes transfers from Tulane after rushing for 1,401 yards and 15 TDs.
While the Ducks did not have the best defense in 2024 as they were ranked 21st in the nation, they have 2 sophomore LBs who have potential to dominate the BIG 10. Tritium Tuioti and Matayo Uiagalelei combined for 96 tackles, 20 TFLs, 16 sacks, and 3 FFs.
What’s not to like:
The obvious thing holding Oregon back in 2025 is the loss of their star QB Dillion Gabriel. Gabriel, in his 6 year career, threw for 18,722 yards and 155 TDs while 1,209 yards and 33 TDs on the ground. The Ducks have a solid QB with Dante Moore, but Gabriel left a mile in his shoes that needs to be filled.
The Duck will also be losing a lot of guys on defense as well. Oregon had the 21st ranked defense in 2024, which is not bad, but expect that to be potentially lower as they are losing key pieces all over the field.
What does the Hourglass say?
Oregon- Big 10 (11-1)
Power ranking 132.53. 9th toughest schedule in the Big 10.
2025 Oregon Analytics
National recruiting rating (three year metric): #1- inside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.
National Coaching Ranking:
Dan Lanning- 9th in Power 5 and 3rd in the Big 10.
2024 coaching value= 16 (average 2025 Power 5 coaching value=9.3) Dan Lanning ranks as one of the better coaches in college football.
ODE analytics 2024 Nationally:
Offensive Ranking: 3rd
Defensive Ranking: 21st
Quarterback Play: Moore- ranked 25th in the Power 4, 3rd in the Big 10; 2024 QB value= 14.7 (Power 4 average- 14.41)
Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Oregon has an Impact Ball Catcher Metric of 4. This puts the Ducks at the upper level for the Big 10 in this metric.
From Vegas:
Oregon ATS in 2024: 7-7
Oregon at home: 3-4
Oregon on the road: 3-2
Oregon neutral site: 1-1
Final thoughts:
The Oregon Ducks had a great season last year which will make every mistake, loss, or close win look worse than they are. This Oregon team took a lot of hits in the off season, so they will not look the same. Oregon fans, the Ducks will have a great season, but do not be surprised if it will not compare to 2024. They have a new QB and RB, plus a lot of new guys on the defensive side, so be patient.
2025 Schedule analysis:
Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.
Editors Note: All photos courtesy of 247sports.com
