2020 Arizona State football predictions on the HG

By Jake Wimberly

What’s to like:

How about momentum. I’ll be the first to say I wasn’t sure NFL Herm Edwards could pull this off at Arizona State. Not because he can’t coach, but because many times, NFL guys don’t put in the work in recruiting.

Edwards has done a remarkable job building a good staff and doing the thing at Arizona State.

The Sun Devils won eight ball games a year ago, and easily could have won double digit games.

Jayden Daniels returns for his sophomore season and last year he was lights out as a freshman, throwing 17 touchdowns to only two interceptions.

There are some pieces to replace, like Eno Benjamin in the backfield, but this club has done nothing but improve the roster talent the last three years and should be on solid foundation heading into 2020.

What’s not to like:

The ability to take the next step. The Sun Devil’s have had only five double digit seasons since 1980, and while there have been many 6, 7- and 8-win seasons – this club has yet to really find greatness. Their last Rose Bowl was 1996 and it takes a little special to go from average to good, and good to great.

This team needs to play better on third down on defense, giving up right at 41 percent of third down conversions – which is a back breaker for a unit that allowed right at 23 points per game; a nice PPG average.

Finally, this team has to learn to close on the road. To many close games lost on opposing team’s fields.

What does the Hourglass Say?

2020 Arizona State pick:  11-1, winner of the PAC 12 South – Pac 12 Runner Up.

2019 HG analytics pick: 6-6; Actual Record 7-5 (92 percent)

 2018 Analytics Pick 5-7; Actual Record7-5 (83 percent accuracy)

2017 Analytics Pick 5-7; Actual Record 7-5 (83 percent accuracy)

Three-year analytic percentage on Arizona State = 86 percent

 2020 Arizona State Analytics –

Hour Glass National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 28th – Inside our Realistic College Football Playoff bust line. Arizona State has the talent on their roster to make the College Football Playoff.

National Coaching Rank for Herm Edwards on HG Scale: 27th (Herm Edwards 2020 coaching value set at (6.4)) – Average coaching value for 2020 set at 6.5. – Edwards is considered average on our metric.

ODE Analytics – NOTE: ODE is our offensive and defensive scoring efficiency ranking for each team. We use a two-year evaluation of each program.

Arizona State ranks 41st in the country in our 2020 ODE evaluation. Offensively they have a ranking of 42nd in the country and defensively 51st in the country.

FINAL THOUGHTS:

Herm Edwards has done a really good job, changing the culture and getting players to buy in to what he wants to do at Arizona State.

Now, it’s about winning those close games and taking advantage of the 10th hardest schedule in the PAC 12.

If they can stay healthy, this should be a great year for the Sun Devils.

Projected Hour Glass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.