2021 Texas football predictions on the HG

Apr 26

Apr 26 2021 Texas football predictions on the HG

Jake Wimberly

What’s to like:

A new beginning. The Steve Sarkisian era officially begins at Texas as the Longhorns hope to bottle some of that play calling magic that made Sark a house hold name the last two years.

The Longhorns have our ninth best roster talent in the country and Sark has a lot to work with in year one - starting with running back Bijan Robinson. Robinson averaged 8.2 yards per clip as a freshman last year.

If the quarterback position pans out, this team could “be back” sooner rather than later.

What’s not to like:

Their defense - it was awful a year ago, mustering only 17 sacks and gave up 29 points per game. Texas has looked soft lately and that will be one of Sark’s initial items to change.

Also Oklahoma is still around. Fair or unfair, Sark will be judged on how well he coaches against Oklahoma and if he can get Texas into the College Football Playoff.

What does the Hourglass Say?

2021 Texas pick: 9-3 - tied for third in the BIG 12

Four-year analytic percentage on Texas= 87 percent

2021 Texas Analytics –

Hour Glass National Recruiting Ranking (three-year metric): 9th – Inside our Realistic College Football Playoff bust line. Texas has the talent on their roster to make the College Football Playoff and win the National Championship.

National Coaching Rank for Steve Sarkisian on HG Scale: 20th (Steve Sarkisian 2021 coaching value set at (8) – Average coaching value for 2021 set at 7.1. – Sarkisian is considered above average on our metric.

ODE Analytics – NOTE: ODE is our offensive and defensive scoring efficiency ranking for each team. We use a two-year evaluation of each program.

Texas ranks 17th in the country in our 2021 ODE evaluation. Offensively they have a ranking of 17th in the country and defensively 36th in the country.

Quarterback Play: Texas has the 37th best quarterback situation in the country going into the season. Their value is set at (7.1). Our national average for average quarterback play is 9.10. Texas falls to just under average to start the year.

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Ranking the teams wide receiver play - and do they have quality, impact wide receivers. Texas ranks 24th in the country.

FINAL THOUGHTS:

It’s all about winning the BIG 12 and getting to the College Football Playoff; and Steve Sarkisian will get some time to try and make that happen. He has to find the right guy at quarterback, shore up the Longhorn defense and develop a sense of toughness in the program. If he could get to double digit wins or knock off Oklahoma in year one, it would be a massive step back into the national spotlight for the program.

Projected Hour Glass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.