2023 SEC Football Projections

Jake Wimberly

The 2023 season will be the final year of a 14 team league in the SEC, as the conference looks to welcome in Oklahoma and Texas in 2024. Before we get to the expansion and off deep in the weeds on 2024, 2023 is an interesting year in the South Eastern Conference.

The conference continues to throw handfuls of guys to the NFL, has the countries best talent and is home to the back to back champion, Georgia Bulldogs.

But - this is a transition year of sorts for the SEC in quarterback play in many pockets of the conference, which could add to some intrigue on football Saturday’s in the south.

The conference this year is rated by my numbers to have the fourth lowest returning production in the Power Five.

Cumulative Conference Quarterback Metrics

1 - PAC 12 - 18.02

2 - BIG 12 - 14.3

3 - ACC - 13.70

4 - SEC - 13.07

5 - BIG 10 - 10.08

That doesn’t mean the conference is in trouble or cannot harvest the Championship trophy again this year, but that does mean look for a few extra upsets along the way and what names will emerge as household names as the conference brings in new signal callers to go with some seasoned ones.

2023 SEC Quarterback Rankings:

1 LSU Jayden Daniels 23.8

2 Miss. State Will Rogers 23.5

3 Arkansas KJ Jefferson 23.4

4 Kentucky Devin Leary 22.8

5 Ole Miss Jaxon Dart/ Spencer Sanders 13.6

6 Florida Graham Mertz 11.3

7 South Carolina Spencer Rattler 10.8

8 Georgia Carson Beck 10

9 Auburn Payton Thorne 9.8

10 Vanderbilt AJ Swann 9.2

11 Alabama Tyler Buchner 7.3

12 Tennessee Joe Milton III 7.2

13 Missouri Brady Cook 6.3

14 Texas A&M Conner Weigman 6.2

Jayden Daniels looks to get LSU back to the SEC Championship game in 2023.

As a reminder, my quarterback rankings are based on returning production. I do agree with the top of these rankings; however you could see Joe Milton at Tennessee, or Weigman at A&M fly up the charts as the season gets going.

The conference has a lot of transfer flavor in the league this year, with new signal callers at Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Florida and more. Over half the league this year will have a transfer quarterback, dating back to two years ago.

Will Rogers at Mississippi State and KJ Jefferson are the two guys who have been with their clubs the longest and straight out of high school.

Coaching Questions Abound:

For the first time since I have been doing the Hourglass, a coach other than Nick Saban is number one in my rankings. I view coaches on a three year revolving window and lots of factors go into these rankings, but this year I have Kirby Smart as the top coach in the conference and the country.

It’s hard to argue with the results of Smart and his staff. They have very little attrition, recruit the best and have back to back National Championships.

2023 SEC Coaching Rankings

1 Georgia Kirby Smart 33

2 Alabama Nick Saban 29

3 LSU Brian Kelly 25

4 Auburn Hugh Freeze 20

5 Tennessee Josh Heupel 17

6 Texas A&M Jimbo Fisher 14

7 Ole Miss Lane Kiffin 14

8 Florida Billy Napier 13

9 Kentucky Mark Stoops 10

10 Arkansas Sam Pittman 7

11 South Carolina Shane Beamer 5

12 Missouri Eliah Drinkwitz 4

13 Miss. State Zach Arnett 3

14 Vanderbilt Clark Lea 2

Shane Beamer should be taken seriously at South Carolina.

Brian Kelly is the one coach who took the conference by storm a year ago and led the Tigers back to the SEC Championship.

Kelly understands football, is a tireless worker and once you cut through all his accents, cliche’s and dumb comments, he is a coach that needs to be taken seriously in this league.

The same can be said for Hugh Freeze down at Auburn. Freeze is working the transfer portal to pick up a quarterback, big play wide out and Auburn isn’t ready to make the LSU jump of last year, but it won’t be long.

Two of the league’s coaches have hot seats heading into the season in Jimbo Fisher and Billy Napier at Florida.

Fisher’s Bobby Patrino experiment better work, or it could be a long year down in College Station.

Napier is only in his second year, but Florida fans grow tired quick and Napier had to turn to the portal for his quarterback this year. They could be better and the results not show it, as Florida book ends a tough schedule with two really good Power Five out of conference games.

As a whole the league has still the best coaches in the country ranking first in my 2023 conference coaching index.

2023 Power Five Coaching Index:

1- SEC-  14.1

2 - BIG 10-  9.28

3- PAC 12 - 7.58

4- BIG 12-  7.46

5 - ACC - 6.21

Strength of Schedule Numbers:

1 Florida 1211.73

2 South Carolina 1204.86

3 Texas A&M 1174.93

4 Alabama 1169.69

5 Auburn 1150.47

6 Miss. State 1148.77

7 Ole Miss 1144.7

8 LSU 1136.34

9 Arkansas 1133.02

10 Missouri 1110.88

11 Kentucky 1095.29

12 Tennessee 1088.13

13 Georgia 1003.2

14 Vanderbilt 987.18

When we comb through scheduling this year, Florida has the toughest schedule in the SEC by my numbers and they actually could be better, but not show it in the win column, which is trouble for Napier. The Gators open at Utah and book end the season against Florida State. Both of those teams will have major says in their conference races.

South Carolina - like Florida book ends their season with North Carolina and Clemson, Texas A&M travels to Miami, Alabama hosts Texas and others have those key out of conference games against Power Five opposition.

Georgia and Tennessee play some of the easiest schedules this year, which could make the end of the year game in Knoxville for all the marbles in the SEC East.

Yes the Volunteers do travel to Alabama and Florida, but play UConn, Virginia, UTSA and Austin Peay in the Non conference slate. If both Tennessee and Georgia stay healthy, look for big years for both.

Oher scheduling notes to keep an eye on: Mississippi State will play eight home games for the first time ever, Ole Miss has a tough task week two traveling to Tulane and LSU opens against Florida State again this year.

Will Rogers takes over a new offense in Starkville in 2023.

The Conference Race as a whole:

Looking at the conference race as a whole, first with the SEC East. This is Georgia’s to lose again as they out recruit the field by a nice margin, have very little attrition and one of the best staffs in the conference.

The battle for the second spot has Tennessee with a slight edge, as Josh Heupel has awoken the Vols program quickly. South Carolina, Florida and Kentucky all will be chasing Tennessee for that second spot - while Missouri looks to get back in that conversation, and Vanderbilt looks for a few more conference wins this year.

The SEC West is a little different scenario - at face value, everyone will say Alabama, but the Tide has some issues, breaking in again new coordinators, a transfer quarterback and looking for home run threats on offense.

LSU, who is the defending champions of the SEC West, brings back a ton of talent and Jayden Daniels, who I think is the best quarterback in the conference.

What about Ole Miss, Arkansas, Mississippi State and Texas A&M? All carry interesting story lines we will address on the team by team previews in the near future. Then there is Auburn, who just landed more big pieces this last week in the transfer portal 2-7 in this division this year, should be as competitive as it has ever been.

In the end, I hedge LSU’s way to win the division again.

I also have Georgia winning the SEC again, once again defeating Brian Kelly’s LSU Tigers. The conference could possibly get two teams in the playoff this year, but they will need some help.

Overall records and standings predictions are below.

SEC East 

1 Georgia 12-0 8-0

2 Tennessee 10-2 6-2

3 South Carolina 7-5 5-3

4 Kentucky 8-4 4-4

5 Florida 5-7 3-5

6 Missouri 4-8 1-7

7 Vanderbilt 4-8 0-8

SEC West 

1 LSU 12-0 8-0

2 Alabama 10-2 7-1

3 Arkansas 8-4 5-3

4 Texas A&M 8-4 4-4

5 Miss. State 7-5 3-5

6 Auburn 6-6 2-6

7 Ole Miss 6-6 2-6

Editors Note: All photos courtesy of 247sports.com