2023 National Championship contenders - Bronze Tier
Jake Wimberly
Tier 3 - Bronze Tier Examination - 2023 National Championship contenders
Projecting the 2023 College Football Playoff we take a look now as I dissect the field.
Tier 3 teams have a lot of the ingrediencies that go into a playoff team, but things have to go right and they have more to navigate than tier two or one.
Below is a breakdown of the teams I feel are tier 3 and what they have to do to beat the field.
Texas -
Talent Rank: 5th
Coaching Rank: 31st
Quarterback Rank: 21st
ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): Above Average 20th percentile
Texas gets in the Playoff IF: Texas get’s in the playoff if they can find a running game to go with Quinn Ewers this year and they can avoid the hiccup loss.
Texas has a road game at Alabama in week two that could go a long way for the Longhorns. They also play the annual game against Oklahoma in October, but look down the road to games against Kansas State, at TCU and Texas Tech. Texas typically drops a few of these along the way. They have to break that trend to get to the BIG 12 Championship and need to be almost perfect.
Final Analysis: Texas could grab a big win against Alabama in week two, but likely drops two on the back end to finish 10-2. This team is still a year or two away.
Quinn Ewers looks to lead Texas to a trip to the BIG 12 Championship in 2023.
Florida State -
Talent Rank: 20th
Coaching Rank: 36th
Quarterback Rank: 8th
ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): Average 25th percentile
Florida State gets in the Playoff IF: They run the table and win the ACC Championship for the first time in almost 10 years. This is the best team Mike Norvell has had in Tallahassee, but they have a big week one game against LSU, travel to Clemson in the middle of the year and play a late season game at Pittsburgh.
The Noles should be in every game they play this year and favored in 10-12 games.
Final Analysis: I have Florida State winning the ACC this year, but a loss along the way; likely week one against LSU. Even at 11-1 and an ACC Championship, things need to go right for Florida State to get in the playoff. Likely New Years Six Day Bowl.
Utah -
Talent Rank: 31st
Coaching Rank: 12th
Quarterback Rank: 10th
ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): Average 25th percentile
Utah gets in the Playoff IF: They run the table in the PAC 12, something, the defending, back to back champions haven’t been able to do. This team plays great defense and can score the ball on most anyone. I had the Utes in the playoff last year, but a week one loss at Florida derailed that out the gate.
Utah hosts Florida to open the season, travels to Baylor, USC and hosts Oregon. Things have to go perfectly for the Utes to run the table and land the PAC 12 in the playoff.
Final Analysis: Utah will again be in the mix for a third straight PAC 12 title, but there are to many land minds along the way. Likely finish is a New Years Six Day game.
Washington -
Talent Rank: 34th
Coaching Rank: 29th
Quarterback Rank: 6th
ODE (Offensive/Defensive Efficiency): Outside Average 35th percentile
Washington gets in the Playoff IF: The Huskies took college football by storm last year, winning 11 games and Michael Penix Jr. returns as one of the top quarterbacks in all of college football. The Huskies boast two 1,000 yard receivers in Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan. They also added some pop in the running back room via the transfer portal.
This team averaged 40 points per game a year ago, but gave up 28 per game. They fill they have made the necessary adjustments to get that defensive number down to around 24 per game.
The Huskies get Oregon and Utah at home, but do have to travel to USC later in the year. If the Huskies can survive an early trip to Michigan State in week three, they could be in line for a special year.
Final Analysis: Quarterback play is a premium out west this year and Washington has all the makings of a rock solid offense again in 2023. Their schedule lines up perfectly to where if they can stay healthy, they could run the table. I have Washington winning the PAC 12 - and making a run to the playoff.
