2025 Alabama Predictions on the HG

Apr 2

Apr 2 2025 Alabama Predictions on the HG

Jake Wimberly

Ross Gaskin Contributing:

What’s to like:

After a “bad” season in Alabama’s standards, Kalen DeBoer is looking for improvement, and this is the team that could make it happen. The Crimson Tide retained a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, but most notably young star WR Ryan Williams. Williams, in his freshman year, came out of the gates hot with 865 yards and 8 TDs.

Returning on the defensive side, Alabama will have star DBs Bray Hubbard and Domani Jackson. Also returning is LB Deonte Lawson and RB Jam Miller. Kalen DeBoer will be able to do anything he wants with this amount of talent on both sides of the ball.

What’s not to like:

For Alabama, the elephant in the room is that they will be departing with Jalen Milroe. Milroe was the starting QB for the past 2 seasons, and he was great for them. Life without Milroe will be tough, but they do have some great talent coming in behind him.

Alabama has 2 young, promising QBs with Ty Simpson and Austin Mack. Both are unproven, but they are great talents with Ty Simpson most likely getting the week 1 start. No matter which QB they go with, Kalen Deboer needs to get both guys ready to go and needs to do it fast.

What does the Hourglass say?

Alabama- SEC (8-4)

Power ranking 121.65. 2nd toughest schedule in the SEC.

2025 Alabama Analytics

National recruiting rating (three year metric): #4- inside the boundary of a National Championship Roster.

National Coaching Ranking:

Kalen DeBoer- 6th in Power 5 and 4th in the SEC.

2024 coaching value= 17 (average 2025 Power 5 coaching value=9.3) Kalen Deboer ranks as one of the top coaches in college football.

ODE analytics 2024 Nationally:

Offensive Ranking: 20th

Defensive Ranking: 6th

Quarterback Play: Simpson- ranked 44th in the Power 4, 13th in the SEC; 2024 QB value= 10.5 (Power 4 average- 14.41)

Impact Ball Catcher Metric: Alabama has an Impact Ball Catcher Metric of 3. This puts the Crimson Tide at the middle of the pack for the SEC in this metric.

From Vegas:

Alabama ATS in 2024: 7-6

Alabama at home: 5-2

Alabama on the road: 2-3

Alabama neutral site: 0-1

Final Thoughts:

The Crimson Tide look great, and Kalen DeBoer is hungry for a Natty. They have so many great players returning, but key pieces will be gone. Alabama’s success hinges on if they can find a guy who can take the snaps, sling the ball, and lead that team. If they do that, they will go a lot higher than 8-4. Expect big things coming out of Tuscaloosa this season.

2025 Schedule analysis:

Projected Hourglass W/L record: Games in red denote games that could be a one possession game or even a different outcome than projection.